72 Items

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Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Affairs

The Path to AI Arms Control

| Oct. 13, 2023

Today, as the world confronts the unique challenges posed by another unprecedented and in some ways even more terrifying technology—artificial intelligence—it is not surprising that many have been looking to history for instruction. Will machines with superhuman capabilities threaten humanity’s status as master of the universe? Will AI undermine nations’ monopoly on the means of mass violence? Will AI enable individuals or small groups to produce viruses capable of killing on a scale that was previously the preserve of great powers? Could AI erode the nuclear deterrents that have been a pillar of today’s world order?

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Analysis & Opinions - The Straits Times

US-China ties: Averting the grandest collision of all

| Mar. 20, 2023

If historian Thucydides were asked about what is happening in relations between the United States and China today, what would he say? That was the question posed to me at the Davos World Economic Forum in January. I responded that he would say that this is a classic Thucydidean rivalry in which the two parties are right on script, each competing to show which can best exemplify the typical rising and ruling power – leaving him on the edge of his seat anticipating the grandest collision of all time.

The American flag flies alongside a Chinese national symbol as President Donald Trump is welcomed to a summit in Beijing, November 9, 2017.

Andy Wong (AP)

Speech - Asia Society Policy Institute

The Avoidable War: Reflections on U.S.-China Relations and the End of Strategic Engagement

| January 2019

The Asia Policy Institute recently released a collection of speeches by its President and former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd about the rivalry between China and the United States. In his forward to the collection, Graham Allison explains why relations between the two countries have become "the defining issue of international relations in the 21st century", and why Kevin Rudd is uniquely equipped to provide insight into them. Read on for both the full introduction and the full report.

"Within the covers of this book, long-time China watcher and former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has provided an analytic snapshot that would normally only be available to the president or prime minister of a major nation. In substance, it would be the envy of the best professional intelligence agency."

Photo of Xi Jinping after his speech in Davos, Switzerland in 2017.

. (AP Photo/Michel Euler, File)

Analysis & Opinions - The National Interest

Xi Jinping Will Give Donald Trump a Victory on Trade

| Jan. 11, 2019

With the conclusion of the first round of negotiations yesterday in Beijing, the way ahead for the United States and China to avoid a full-scale tariff war has become clear. With fifty days remaining before the March 1 end of the truce Trump and Xi announced to prevent U.S. tariffs increasing from 10 to 25 percent on $200 billion of Chinese imports, negotiations are likely to continue until the deadline. But before March 1, Trump will declare “victory” in this phase of the trade war—extending the truce for another six months in which a second phase of negotiations will address even more contentious issues.

- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center Newsletter

Graham Allison: U.S., China Must Work to Prevent War

| Fall/Winter 2018-2019

Douglas Dillon Professor of Government Graham Allison took the stage at TED World Theater in New York in September to discuss the question: How will the U.S. respond to the rise of China? Allison's TED Talk was part of TED's "We the Future" event that explored some of the world's most daunting challenges along with possible solutions. 

An American flag is flown next to the Chinese national emblem and flags during a welcome ceremony for visiting U.S. President Donald Trump outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. November 9, 2017 (Andy Wong/Associated Press).

Andy Wong/Associated Press

Analysis & Opinions - Cato Unbound

The Future of U.S.-China Relations Begins at Home

| Mar. 12, 2018

Kori Schake’s essay (and the book from which it is adapted) provides a serious, penetrating, and provocative invitation to debate the overriding geostrategic challenge of our time: what to do about the rise of China. Safe Passage is an outstanding example of the sort of work we champion at the Harvard Belfer Center’s Applied History Project. It illuminates current challenges by careful analysis of the historical record. And the case she examines in which the United States rose to rival and eventually surpass the British global hegemony is among the most instructive of the 16 cases in the Harvard Thucydides’ Trap case file for policymakers seeking to cope with the current U.S.-China competition.