International Security

For the first time in more than two decades, the United States faces a competitor that has the ability to inflict heavy costs on its air and naval forces. Maintaining stability in East Asia will therefore require significant changes in U.S. military capabilities and posture—changes that are likely to prove difficult while defense resources are scarce. Many of these changes will take years to implement, however, and China's military modernization shows no signs of slowing. The United States cannot afford to delay.

Despite their disagreements, proponents of deep engagement and offshore balancing share an optimistic but unrealistic assessment regarding the durability of U.S. military dominance. China’s antiaccess/area denial strategy and conventional precision-strike capabilities are already undermining the United States’ military dominance in East Asia. The United States will need to adapt its military to meet this challenge.

The utility of space weapons to protect U.S. satellites, establish control of space, and project global force projection is constrained by three principal factors: “high cost, considerable susceptibility to countermeasures, and the availability of cheaper, more effective alternatives.” Based on these findings, the authors suggest that U.S. national security interests would be better served by an international regime that bans space weapons.