347 Items

Blog Post - Views on the Economy and the World

After NAFTA

| Oct. 12, 2018

Donald Trump thinks he once again pulled off a smashing victory on October 1, delivering on his oft-repeated campaign promise to terminate NAFTA, “the worst trade deal ever,“ and replace it with something much newer and better.  One is tempted to say to oneself, “Let him think that.”  The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement may not be an improvement over the status quo, but at least it is an improvement over the end to free trade in North America which he had threatened.

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

The New and Not Improved NAFTA

| Oct. 09, 2018

US President Donald Trump has called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which succeeds NAFTA, “the single greatest agreement ever signed." In reality, it is not as good as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, from which Trump withdrew the US upon taking office, nor is it particularly better than the agreement it replaced.

Blog Post - Views on the Economy and the World

Trump Renews Charges of Chinese Currency Manipulation

| Sep. 24, 2018

The US Treasury is due in October to submit its biannual report to Congress on what countries, if any, are manipulating their currencies to gain unfair trade advantage.   President Trump has recently resumed the accusation against China  that he made during the election campaign.   “I think China’s manipulating their currency, absolutely. And I think the euro is being manipulated also,” he told Reuters.  He is apparently pressuring the Treasury directly in its deliberations.

Blog Post - Views on the Economy and the World

Rising US Real Interest Rates Imply Falling Commodity Prices

| Aug. 28, 2018

Real interest rates tend to have a negative effect on real prices of commodities: oil and gas, minerals, and agricultural commodities. One might hazard the prediction that US real interest rates are headed up, and therefore, other things equal, real commodity prices will decline.

The theory of the relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices is long-established. Personally, I like the “overshootingformulation of the theory.