161 Items

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Analysis & Opinions - Russia Matters

Measuring National Power: Is Vladimir Putin’s Russia in Decline?

| May 04, 2018

As Vladimir Putin embarks on another six-year term as Russia’s president, Western pundits and policymakers are left wondering whether his reelection means that Moscow’s muscular policies toward America and other Western powers will continue or even escalate. But what is the reality of Russian power in the Putin era? Is Russia a rising, declining or stagnating power? How does its standing in the global order compare to other nations, including the United States, China and European powers?

Opposition demonstrators gather in the Republic Square celebrating Armenian Prime Minister's Serzh Sargsyan's resignation in Yerevan, Armenia, Monday, April 23, 2018. (Davit Abrahamyan/PAN Photo via AP)

Davit Abrahamyan/PAN Photo via AP

Analysis & Opinions - Russia Matters

Armenia: Why Has Vladimir Putin Not Intervened So Far and Will He?

| Apr. 24, 2018

The resignation of Armenia’s Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan after more than a week of mass protests in Russia’s backyard begs the question: Why has Moscow not intervened so far? The fist-pumping demonstrators bring to mind “color revolutions” in the post-Soviet neighborhood that the Kremlin seems to abhor, like the ones in Georgia and Ukraine. But even genuine color revolutions (which Armenia has not yet seen—more on that below) are not enough by themselves to prompt Russia to stage either a covert or overt intervention. As I have argued before, for Moscow to intervene in one of its Soviet-era satellites at least two conditions need to be present: First, Vladimir Putin has to see an acute threat to Russia’s vital national interests, such as the potential expansion of antagonistic Western-led alliances too close to Russia’s borders; second, the chances for defending or advancing its interests through the use of force have to be relatively high.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a live televised speech in Moscow. March 23, 2018 (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via Associated Press). Keywords: Putin, Russia,

Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via Associated Press

Analysis & Opinions - The National Interest

From Mutually Assured Destruction to Mutually Assured Delusion (and Back?)

| Mar. 12, 2018

If U.S. and Russian decision-makers do not just profess but also genuinely believe in the continuing decline and pending collapse of each other’s countries, then chances are they will act more assertively against each other.

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- US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism

The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: December 2017 - February 2018

  • U.S. experts debate whether russia can be a viable CT partner for America.
  • Graham Allison on importance of prevention of nuclear terrorism.
  • Russia’s National Guard is mulling drone defense at NPP.
  • U.S. Nuclear Posture Review on countering nuclear terrorism.

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Book Chapter - Routledge

Sino-Russian Relations: Same Bed, Different Dreams?

    Editors:
  • Donette Murray
  • David Brown
| Nov. 09, 2017

Fu Ying, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress, contends that the “Chinese-Russian relationship is a stable strategic partnership and by no means a marriage of convenience: it is complex, sturdy, and deeply rooted.” This chapter from Power Relations in the Twenty-First Century Mapping a Multipolar World?, a volume of Contemporary Security Studies, attempts to capture the changing dynamics of Russian-Chinese relations, focusing on how the two countries affect each other’s national interests—and how those interactions, in turn, will shape their relationship in decades to come and the prospects for a more multipolar, post-American world.

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- US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism

The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: September - November 2017

  • Elbe Group members participate in Moscow conference.
  • U.S. and Russian experts weigh in on North Korea’s nuclear missile program, call for preservation of the nuclear deal with Iran.
  • NNSA Reports that some nuclear security cooperation with Russia is continuing.
  • Saradzhyan testifies on potential for U.S.-Russian counter-terrorism cooperation.
  • Bunn and Roth ponder effects of a nuclear terrorist bomb explosion.

Belarusian military jets fly during military exercises, Belarus, Tuesday, Sept. 19, 2017. The Zapad (West) 2017 military drills held jointly by Russian and Belarusian militaries at several firing ranges in both countries have rattled Russia's neighbors. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits, Pool)

AP Photo/Sergei Grits, Pool

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

100,000 Troops Will Engage in Russia’s Zapad-2017 War Games

| Sep. 13, 2017

As Russia prepares for its annual strategic military exercises, speculation is mounting that the Zapad-2017 war games, set for Thursday through Sept. 20 in western Russia and Belarus, might be a prelude to war. Ukraine’s defense minister cautioned that Zapad could be a ruse to attack any European country “that shares a border with Russia,” while the New York Times proclaimed that the drills near NATO’s borders have raised “fears of aggression.” A CNN contributor wondered, “Could they turn into war?”

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- US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: June - August 2017

  • Alexey Arbatov warns that nukes will end up in hands of terrorists sooner or later.
  • Belfer Center experts build timeline for Nunn-Lugar in former Soviet Union.
  • Graham Allison calls for U.S.-Russian cooperation on counter-proliferation.
  • U.S. and Russian experts weigh in on nuclear threats posed by North Korea.
  • Hecker and White call for revival of U.S.-Russian lab-to-lab cooperation.