Nuclear Issues

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s most recent announcement on Iran policy has raised some eyebrows. He indicated on Monday morning that the Trump administration will not renew waivers to importers of Iranian crude and that other suppliers (meaning Saudi Arabia) have agreed to increase production in to ensure the global oil market remains well-supplied. Skeptics question whether — after last summer’s debacle — there is sufficient trust between Washington and Riyadh for this arrangement to work. What skeptics may not have digested is that, while timing remains a problem, this is a classic win-win situation. It is a near-perfect example of the very limited universe of occasions when transactional diplomacy could actually work.

What does President Trump hope to accomplish with his policies towards Iran? And will he get what he wants by imposing ever-greater pressure on its regime? At this point, David Ignatius argues, it doesn't necessarily matter. Whether or not the sanctions against Iran are successful, the President's excessive focus on Iran may cost America its hard-won success elsewhere.

In mid-January, a team of scholars from the Belfer Center’s Intelligence and Managing the Atom Projects traveled to Tel Aviv, Israel to examine samples of, and receive briefings on, an archive of documents related to Iran’s nuclear weapons program that a clandestine Israeli intelligence operation spirited out of Iran in early 2018. The Belfer team’s forthcoming report will explore both the conclusions that can be drawn and the mysteries that remain.

Following the breakdown of February’s Trump-Kim Summit in Hanoi, Belfer Center experts discussed the impact of the shortened summit. 

The Spring 2019 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features two major reports: A Vision for Nuclear Security, from the Project on Managing the Atom, and NATO in Crisis, a  70th anniversary report from former NATO Ambassadors Nicholas Burns and Douglas Lute. The newsletter also highlights Center Korea scholars' reactions to the shortened Trump-Kim Summit in Hanoi, and some takeaways from nuclear experts who recently examined samples of Iranian nuclear-related documents spirited out of Iran by a clandestine Israeli intelligence operation.

And there's much more.

The Outrider Foundation has released a new stop-motion animation demonstrating the steps to take apart a nuclear-armed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile. Sébastien Philippe, a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow in the Belfer Center’s International Security Program and Managing the Atom Project, served as a technical advisor on the film.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears most likely to form Israel's next government following its election on 9 April, although it is unclear how stable such a government would be. Further elections within the next two years are quite possible. Whatever the outcome of the election, Israel's next leader will be forced to address a range of serious and interrelated strategic challenges.

Stephen Walt writes that the future will be determined by a handful of big questions: What is China's future trajectory; How good are America's cybercapabilities; What's going to happen to the EU; How many states will go nuclear in the next 20 years; and Who will win the debate on U.S. grand strategy?