Nuclear Issues

"Although the cancellation of the planned deployment of the SM-3 IIB interceptors has removed the possibility that interceptors deployed under the phased adaptive approach would pose a threat to Russian missiles, it has not diminished the missile defense system's primary mission of intercepting an array of current and potential future Iranian missiles. The restructured missile defense system would still theoretically be able to handle these Iranian missile threats, even if one factors in a comfortable amount of time for detecting and tracking them."

"Our crystal ball is not clear enough to predict with confidence whether the global nuclear future will be characterized by peace and prosperity or by conflict and destruction. But we do believe that the choices made in the coming few years will be crucial in determining whether the world can have more nuclear power without more nuclear weapons dangers in the future."

"...[A] primary goal in the next decades must be to remove this risk of near global self-destruction by drastically reducing nuclear forces to a level where this outcome is not possible, but where a deterrent value is preserved — in other words, to a level of minimum deterrence. This conception was widely discussed in the early years of the nuclear era, but it drowned in the Cold War flood of weaponry. No matter how remote the risk of civilization collapse may seem now — despite its being so vivid only a few decades ago — the elimination of this risk, for this century and centuries to come, must be a primary driver for radical reductions in nuclear weapons."

Will the growth of nuclear power lead to increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation and nuclear terrorism? Will the nonproliferation regime be adequate to ensure safety and security in a world more widely and heavily invested in nuclear power? The authors in this two-volume (Fall 2009 and Winter 2010) special issue of Dædalus have one simple and clear answer to these questions: It depends.

Matthew Fuhrmann's article "Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements," was published by in the Summer 2009 issue of International Security. In his article, Dr. Fuhrmann argues "Peaceful nuclear cooperation—the transfer of nuclear technology, materials, or know-how from one state to another for peaceful purposes—leads to the spread of nuclear weapons. With a renaissance in nuclear power on the horizon, major suppliers, including the United States, should reconsider their willingness to assist other countries in developing peaceful nuclear programs."

The nuclear program of the Islamic Republic of Iran is becoming an increasingly large issue in Turkey. Even though there were abundant publications worldwide about Iran’s alleged efforts to develop nuclear weapons for more than two decades, Turkish security elite, with few exceptions, have only recently started to raise an eyebrow and express concerns about the subject. To date, their stance vis-à-vis Iran’s nuclear program would be categorized as one of negligence, to say the least. One particular reason for such an attitude was the widespread belief among the Turks that Iran would not be able to materialize its nuclear weapons ambitions anyway because of the adamant opposition of the United States and Israel. In addition, Iran’s obligations under the terms of the NPT and its comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA were also thought to be real impediments. Moreover, Turkey’s NATO membership and the considerable might of the Turkish Armed Forces were believed to be powerful deterrents against Iran, if need be.

A universal Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT), which would ban the production of fissile material (separated plutonium, highly enriched uranium (HEU), and uranium-233) for nuclear weapons, has long been seen as a key building block in nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.

Nuclear terrorism is a realistic threat to all countries. First, this article describes the potential threats of nuclear terrorism including nuclear explosives, nuclear sabotage, and dirty bombs. Finally, this article recommends steps to secure nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear facilities.