Nuclear Issues

With the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) now over, policymakers are thinking about next steps to address nuclear security. The NSS process has progressed since its first installment in 2010; yet, the Middle East, a key region where nuclear security is of tremendous importance, remains underrepresented.

"Although the cancellation of the planned deployment of the SM-3 IIB interceptors has removed the possibility that interceptors deployed under the phased adaptive approach would pose a threat to Russian missiles, it has not diminished the missile defense system's primary mission of intercepting an array of current and potential future Iranian missiles. The restructured missile defense system would still theoretically be able to handle these Iranian missile threats, even if one factors in a comfortable amount of time for detecting and tracking them."

"...[S]ituated in what it sees as a hostile neighborhood, it is hardly surprising that the Iranian government views an independent nuclear fuel cycle as interchangeable with deterrence, rather than as a bid for building a nuclear arsenal. While building a nuclear arsenal would be a costly endeavor, risking international isolation and assuring Iran's 'pariah status,' acquiring civilian nuclear capability would afford Iran the security and psychological edge it has long sought, and at a lower cost."

The nuclear program of the Islamic Republic of Iran is becoming an increasingly large issue in Turkey. Even though there were abundant publications worldwide about Iran’s alleged efforts to develop nuclear weapons for more than two decades, Turkish security elite, with few exceptions, have only recently started to raise an eyebrow and express concerns about the subject. To date, their stance vis-à-vis Iran’s nuclear program would be categorized as one of negligence, to say the least. One particular reason for such an attitude was the widespread belief among the Turks that Iran would not be able to materialize its nuclear weapons ambitions anyway because of the adamant opposition of the United States and Israel. In addition, Iran’s obligations under the terms of the NPT and its comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA were also thought to be real impediments. Moreover, Turkey’s NATO membership and the considerable might of the Turkish Armed Forces were believed to be powerful deterrents against Iran, if need be.

A universal Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT), which would ban the production of fissile material (separated plutonium, highly enriched uranium (HEU), and uranium-233) for nuclear weapons, has long been seen as a key building block in nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation.

This article was prepared for the Symposium on A Nuclear Iran: The Legal Implications of a Preemptive National Security Strategy held at the Syracuse University School of Law, Syracuse, New York, 26-27 October 2006.