Nuclear Issues

How might Iran retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike? The most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to open-source order of battle data, as well as relevant analogies from military history and GIS maps, Iran does possess significant littoral warfare capabilities, including mines, antiship cruise missiles, and land-based air defense. If Iran were able to properly link these capabilities, it could halt or impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more. U.S. attempts to reopen the waterway likely would escalate rapidly into sustained, large-scale air and naval operations during which Iran could impose significant economic and military costs on the United States — even if Iranian operations were not successful in truly closing the strait. The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly, suggesting needed changes in U.S. force posture and energy policy.

Dr. Elizabeth D. Sherwood-Randall's article in Democracy: A Journal of Ideas.

The most significant challenge facing the U.S. in an increasingly unstable Middle East today is understanding the rise of the Shi'ites across the region.

"...how can the United States maximize the benefits that primacy brings and minimize the resistance that its power sometimes provokes?"

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a human tragedy that has defied political settlement for more than 50 years. Official negotiations have neither ended Israeli occupation of the Palestinian Territories nor fostered the development of a viable Palestinian state, both prerequisites for a secure peace.

The failure of Israeli–Palestinian negotiations to achieve a viable political settlement can be explained, in large part, by the lack of oversight mechanisms to ensure compliance with past UN resolutions and peace plans. The 2003 ‘road map’ calling for a final and comprehensive settlement of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict by 2005, like its predecessors, will be a rhetorical flourish unless it is accompanied by an institutionalized oversight mechanism. This article investigates the potential for deployment of an international peacekeeping mission to the Occupied Palestinian Territories that would consist of three parts: a basic security component led by NATO, a civilian peace building mission led by the UN, and a special monitoring presence around the holy sites in Jerusalem. This tri-partite peacekeeping mission might be deployed with the consent of the parties and given a Chapter VII mandate to be able to respond to special contingencies. The UN-authorized peacekeeping mission could be within the overall framework for ending the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip and establishing an independent Palestinian state.