Nuclear Issues

Oil markets have so far reacted to President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal without either enthusiasm or panic — without even much apparent interest. There are many good reasons for this, but also many reasons to think oil markets’ complacency could change. Fortunately, the Obama-era sanctions that Trump has moved to reimpose have some lesser-known safety valves should oil markets later overheat as a result of the Iran decision.

Stephen Walt writes that Donald Trump's goal in withdrawing the United States from the JCPOA is to prevent Iran from establishing normal relations with the rest of the world.

Britain, France, and Germany's outreach to Trump has increasingly put them in a position where they will likely be blamed by all sides in case the nuclear deal collapses.

Ilan Goldenberg and Ariane Tabatabai analyze the consequences of U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA.

A study of hawkish, anti-reformist accounts shows what President Rouhani is up against.

Ariane Tabatabai examines Bolton's worldview, nonproliferation track record, and stance on Iran.

"...Iran's turn toward China and Russia leave the United States with less leverage for future negotiations on any issue, making it less and less likely for Iran to agree to cooperate with the United States or its allies. Thus, it is crucial to rethink these policies and come up with a more feasible plan."

The president's tweets suggest he barely understands the country he's repeatedly demonized. This is troublesome given how much influence he has on what happens next.

Trump's strategy appears to be one of brinkmanship—rocking the boat in hopes that the other party is less risk-tolerant and will give in before the boat capsizes.