Nuclear Issues

If you think like a realist, many confusing aspects of world politics become easier to understand, writes Stephen Walt.

Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the International Security Program discusses her research at the Belfer Center.

President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran will undermine U.S. power and influence around the world. Congress must closely monitor the reinstatement of sanctions on Iran to reduce the blowback on U.S economic interests, and provide strict oversight of the Trump administration’s evolving strategy toward Iran.

Ariane M. Tabatabai describes Iran's foreign policymaking process.

So far, there seems to be a strong lobby in favor of protecting EU business interests in Iran by proposing sanctions-blocking measures to guard against US secondary sanctions. Ultimately, however, it will be business, not political decisions, that will spell the end of the JCPOA— a lesson almost learned in 1982.

I heard passionate enthusiasm for Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal from prominent Arabs gathered here last weekend for a conferencesponsored by the Beirut Institute. They know that scuttling the nuclear deal could be dangerous and that the region is already a powder keg. But many Arab leaders don’t seem to care.

To put it bluntly, they like the idea that Trump is willing to stick it to Tehran. Though they expect an Iranian counterpunch, they’re not as worried about it as you might expect. Several prominent Arabs predicted that Tehran will eventually bend to pressure, if there’s a united front.

The greatest gunfight in the history of cowboy films is in “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly.” It’s a three-cornered shoot-out between Clint Eastwood (Blondie), Tuco (Eli Wallach), and Angel Eyes (Lee Van Cleef). The crucial point is that before the shooting starts, Blondie has emptied Tuco’s revolver of bullets.

To members of Washington’s foreign policy establishment, regardless of party affiliation, President Trump’s decision to exit one nuclear deal (with Iran) only to enter another nuclear deal (with North Korea) is beyond baffling. They clearly never saw “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly.” Like Eastwood’s Blondie, Trump understands that only one of his antagonists has a loaded gun.

The US withdrawal from the JCPOA has laid bare the strategic contradictions inherent in this approach. The United States has abrogated its leadership position on global nuclear non-proliferation while demanding trust and support from allies. It has also reopened the prospect of Iranian nuclear armament while forfeiting the moral and institutional ammunition the US would need to clinch a better deal.

Nicholas Burns' interview op-ed with NowThis news: Trump is only making Iran stronger.

Belfer Center Director and former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter talks about pulling out of the Iran Deal, North Korea, and more on CNN New Day with Chris Cuomo.