"Despite decades of journalism and scholarship on Iranian security matters, existing analyses continue to be hindered by a reliance on flawed and incomplete secondary sources on Tehran's intentions and behavior. The commentary on the Iran-Iraq War, one of the most significant events in contemporary Iranian history, and on the country’s nuclear program, perhaps the foremost security challenge tied to Iran, are important examples of these shortcomings. Ignoring primary sources in Persian leaves a major gap in the literature on Iranian security policies."

Western policymakers and scholars have underestimated the Iran-Iraq War’s effect on Iran’s nuclear policy.

A discussion of the state of play in the apparent final days of the Iranian nuclear negotiations and the stumbling blocks remaining on the path toward a final deal

Ariane Tabatabai, Research Associate with the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, writes in The Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists that contrary to public statements, there are very really divisions between the countries within the P5+1 negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program. Specifically, she notes China, the United Kingdom, and Germany as being generally more quiet and less active in the talks, while France, Russia, and the United States have been the most vocal and active players in trying to shape the negotiations. She concludes that while each country has an interest in a successful conclusion to the talks, the final outcome is also being determined by each nation's interests and goals as they approach the negotiations.

"The P5+1, as the group has come to be known, is the official party negotiating with Iran, but it can really be divided into two camps. The Western side is composed of the United States and its European partners: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. China and Russia are the non-Western parties to the talks. Though they all share the goal of preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, each of these actors also has its own agenda. Their respective interests are political, strategic, and economic."

Dina Esfandiary, Research Associate at King's College, London, and Ariane Tabatabai, Research Associate at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, write for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists that an Iranian nuclear deal is unlikely to spark a major surge in developing nuclear technology in the countries of the Middle East. They look specifically at the cases of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates and examine the technical, diplomatic, and political challenges to each one to actively pursuing nuclear weapons programs, and argue from this assessment that a successful nuclear deal with Iran will not spur a nuclear arms race in the region. 

"Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and the UAE are all dependent on foreign suppliers and expertise for their programs. They lack the human capacity for the programs. Foreign involvement makes it difficult, though not impossible, to covertly develop a nuclear weapon. This means that suppliers also need to do their due diligence and ensure that buyers use their equipment for purely peaceful purposes."

"On their own, civilian nuclear programs do not necessarily imply a military threat. Under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), member countries are allowed to pursue civilian nuclear programs. Because of a growing energy demand, many countries in the Middle East are exploring nuclear power as part of their energy mix. While some, including the United Arab Emirates, have succeeded in starting civilian nuclear power programs, others face serious financing and technical capacity issues."

"The Middle East's only operating nuclear power plant, Bushehr, is located in Iran's south, close to the Persian Gulf. The rest of the eight reactors Tehran has planned will also be built in the area. This means that any safety breach would not only affect Iran's population, but also have cross-border implications."

Iran and its P5+1 negotiating partners reached a groundbreaking framework agreement on Tehran's nuclear program in early April. In this podcast, Carnegie's Tong Zhao and Ariane Tabatabai discussed the agreement, follow-up talks on technical details, and China's relations with Iran.