47 Items

People march behind a banner portraying Italian premier Matteo Renzi and reading "Let's oust Renzi" during a demonstration ahead of a referendum over a constitutional reform.

Andrew Medichini/AP

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

Fleeing from Italy

| November 23, 2016

Italy’s referendum on December 4 will give voters the opportunity to approve or reject what some have described as the country’s most extensive constitutional reforms since the abolition of the monarchy at the end of World War II.

Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras speaks about debt relief to the lawmakers of his Syriza party at the parliament in Athens, Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2015.

AP Photo

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

The Perils of Debt Complacency

| September 28, 2016

If Skidelsky’s point had been that some economies, including the United States, would benefit from higher infrastructure spending, even at the cost of more debt, I would agree wholeheartedly. Compelling reasons for boosting US public investment include deteriorating infrastructure, tepid growth, low interest rates, and limited scope for further monetary stimulus. For the US, such an impetus might be especially welcome as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates (albeit gradually) while other countries ease further or hold rates steady and the dollar likely strengthens.

But that was not the route Skidelsky took.

Brexit’s Blow To Globalization

Petr Kratochvil

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

Brexit’s Blow To Globalization

| June 29, 2016

The United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum has shaken equity and financial markets around the world. As in prior episodes of contagious financial turmoil, the victory of the “Leave” vote sent skittish global investors toward the usual safe havens. US Treasury bonds rose, and the dollar, Swiss franc, and yen appreciated, most markedly against sterling.

When it became clear that the “Remain” camp had lost, the pound’s slide seemed to be on track to match the historic 14% depreciation of the 1967 sterling crisis. But the rollercoaster outcomes that we’re now seeing in global capital markets are not unique to the Brexit episode.

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Analysis & Opinions

Argentina’s Eternal Debt Problem

| June 09, 2016

Argentina recently emerged from nearly 15 years of the most litigious sovereign default in modern times, if not ever. Now it has the opportunity to reenter the global financial system and build a more stable and prosperous future. It is a chance that the country must be careful not to squander.

Argentina’s long absence from international capital markets began in December 2001, when a deep economic crisis brought about the end of the decade-old Convertibility Plan (which fixed the Argentine peso to the US dollar) and ushered in what turned out to be a year-long banking holiday known as the Corralito.

The Post-Crisis Economy’s Long Debt Hangover

Flickr

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

The Post-Crisis Economy’s Long Debt Hangover

| May 18, 2016

The meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Washington, DC last week concluded on a sour note. Small wonder: Global growth prospects have dimmed amid a variety of risks now emanating from both advanced and developing countries.

The meeting’s participants addressed – yet again – the need for greater policy coordination, more fiscal stimulus, and a variety of structural reforms. And that discussion has become more urgent, given the widespread view that monetary policy may not have much ammunition left, and that competitive devaluations would do more harm than good.

China's incompatible goals

Flickr

Analysis & Opinions - The New Times

China's incompatible goals

| March 24, 2016

As Chinese policymakers attempt to address what ails their country’s economy, they are pursuing two goals that will almost certainly turn out to be incompatible. Very seldom have central banks been able to maintain a fixed exchange rate over an extended period of time while providing liquidity to troubled banks and an ailing economy. Indeed, the task becomes especially difficult as the monetary stringency needed to prop up the currency intensifies strains on domestic banks and the real economy.

Those looking for a rough outline of the Chinese economy’s future would be wise to revisit what happened in Thailand in 1997, when the collapse of the baht precipitated the Asian financial crisis. Of course, China in 2016 is different in many ways from Thailand in 1997; but there are key similarities in their responses to ongoing capital outflows.

The atrium of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, February 5, 2018, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

(AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

Whose QE Was it, Anyway?

| Feb. 26, 2016

Years before the 2008 financial crisis, foreign central banks’ ownership of US Treasuries began to catch up with – and then overtake – the Federal Reserve’s share. Indeed, tighter liquidity conditions and increased volatility in financial markets are the byproduct of the reversal in this long cycle of foreign purchases.