In this paper, Nicola De Blasio and Derek Zheng provide a decision-making and analysis framework for public and private stakeholders to develop an effective, informed understanding of how global energy value chains and subsequent markets will develop and evolve throughout the energy transition.

Recent events have highlighted how wars, pandemics, and even supply chain issues can quickly blunt existing efforts and policies to address climate change. The solution cannot lie in globalization, argue authors De Blasio and Zheng, but instead in a long-term systemic focus on clean technology innovation. The path ahead will require a collective understanding of how developing and deploying the needed clean technology innovation will affect value chains, markets, and geopolitics.

The transition from energy systems dominated by fossil fuels to ones based on renewable electricity and carbon-free molecules will significantly impact existing value chains and forge new pathways and transformation steps from production to consumption. This transition will bring not only substantial cost challenges but also promises to dramatically alter stakeholders’ interactions along value chains.