Dina Esfandiary assesses the Islamic Republic on the fortieth anniversary of the Iranian Revolution.

Featured latest publications by Belfer Center, HKS fellows over the course of this year.

The most significant challenge to the post–Cold War international order is the growing power of ambitious states opposed to the West. Iran, Russia and China each view the global structure through the prism of historical experience. Rejecting the universality of Western liberal values, these states and their governments each consider the relative decline of Western economic hegemony as an opportunity. Yet cooperation between them remains fragmentary.

"The United States and Iran are the two key players in the fight against ISIS, not least of all because they are two of the group's main targets. Indeed, other countries, particularly in Europe, have also been targeted by the group and seen ISIS attempt to recruit among their populations. As a result, they also share an interest in combatting the group. But the United States and Iran have made the fight against ISIS a security policy priority and allocated considerable resources to undertaking efforts in Iraq and Syria. While the two adversaries have aligned interests in Iraq, they have undertaken separate counterterrorism efforts to tackle the group."

Dina Esfandiary, Research Associate at King's College, London, and Ariane Tabatabai, Research Associate at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, write for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists that an Iranian nuclear deal is unlikely to spark a major surge in developing nuclear technology in the countries of the Middle East. They look specifically at the cases of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates and examine the technical, diplomatic, and political challenges to each one to actively pursuing nuclear weapons programs, and argue from this assessment that a successful nuclear deal with Iran will not spur a nuclear arms race in the region. 

"Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and the UAE are all dependent on foreign suppliers and expertise for their programs. They lack the human capacity for the programs. Foreign involvement makes it difficult, though not impossible, to covertly develop a nuclear weapon. This means that suppliers also need to do their due diligence and ensure that buyers use their equipment for purely peaceful purposes."

"On their own, civilian nuclear programs do not necessarily imply a military threat. Under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), member countries are allowed to pursue civilian nuclear programs. Because of a growing energy demand, many countries in the Middle East are exploring nuclear power as part of their energy mix. While some, including the United Arab Emirates, have succeeded in starting civilian nuclear power programs, others face serious financing and technical capacity issues."