The energy transition has made deep-sea mining for critical minerals cost-competitive for the first time, and Chinese companies are champing at the bit to start mining at a commercial scale. The United States and its partners, by contrast, have been caught on the back foot when it comes to China’s stranglehold on the critical mineral supply chain. With the geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States intensifying, many Western observers say the United States can’t afford to lose the scramble for the seabed.