Executive Director for Research, Gary Samore, sits down with Bloomberg News' Jeffrey Goldberg to discuss the potential of success with nuclear talks in Iran.

On November 24, 2013, Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and German) reached agreement on the Joint Plan of Action, an interim nuclear deal. Could the Joint Plan of Action, which went into effect on January 20, 2014, serve as a model for a nuclear agreement in the Six Party Talks?

Gary Samore explains what Iran gave up in the accord that finalized implementation details of the interim nuclear agreement, and what they received in return. Overall, he writes, the mutually agreeable framework for implementing the interim deal is a positive sign for the negotiations, but there are still stumbling blocks going forward.

Graham Allison and Gary Samore gather the best arguments in favor of easing sanctionson Iran to facilitate a permanent nuclear deal—and the best arguments by those who want to strengthen sanctions on Iran.

News broke yesterday that three prominent senators—Menendez (D-NJ), Kirk (R-IL), and Schumer (D-NY)—may introduce legislation this year that would impose new sanctions against Iran with a “deferred trigger.” That is, the new sanctions can be averted only if the Obama administration provides specific and difficult certifications every 30 days including that Iran is implementing the terms of the November 24 Joint Plan of Action and negotiating “in good faith” toward a final deal. Based on an advance copy of the “Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2013,” I summarize the substance of the draft legislation, including both the new proposed sanctions and the complicated set of presidential certifications and notifications to waive existing sanctions and suspend the additional sanctions.  In a second post, I examine the current legislative state of play and the likely administration objections to the draft legislation.

In the near term, the Obama administration does not yet need to engage Senators Menendez, Kirk, and Schumer on the details of their proposed Nuclear Weapon Free Act of 2013. The upcoming congressional recess and the protection of friendly senators (including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Chairman of the Senate Banking and Finance Committee Tim Johnson) are likely to delay consideration of the bill for the time being. However, congressional support for sanctions legislation against Iran has strong bipartisan support, and pressure for additional legislation is likely to grow if – as seems likely – it becomes apparent in coming months that negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran on a final agreement are not faring well. In the event that the Obama administration is forced to enter into negotiations with Congress on new sanctions legislation, the White House is likely to have several objections to the proposed Senate legislation, especially on the certification requirements to waive or suspend sanctions.

Gary Samore, the Belfer Center’s executive director for research and former White House coordinator for arms control and WMD, recently addressed the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain:

The agreement is not a Historic Breakthrough that ushers in a new era of American-Iranian condominium and geopolitical realignment the region. Nor is it a Historic Blunder that signals US acceptance of Iran as a nuclear power. Instead, the interim deal is simply a six month truce.  

As the P5+1 and Iran emerge from discussions this week on implementing the interim deal good for six months, much of the analytical community has begun to look at possible terms of a final, comprehensive agreement. Here is our latest selection of best analyses on this question and on what’s next for the nuclear negotiations.

Continuing his trip through the region, Gary Samore writes in from Saudi Arabia: "On the Iran nuclear issue, I was struck that the Saudis are less concerned with the details of the nuclear negotiations and more with how the nuclear issue fits into the broader geopolitical threat they perceive from Iran. Unlike Israelis, who see the Iranian nuclear program as an existential threat, the Saudis see the Islamic Republic itself as an existential threat."

Gary Samore describes Israeli sentiment over the Iran deal after a visit to Israel.