China may give Donald Trump some face-saving way out from the trade war he has started, but it won't offer any substantive concessions. In other words, Trump's tariffs will do nothing to improve America’s external balance, output, employment, or real wages.

In recent years, productivity growth in developed economies has been stagnating. The most prominent explanations of this trend involve technology. Technological progress is supposed to increase economies’ productivity and potential growth. So what’s going on?

In recent years, productivity growth in developed economies has been stagnating. The most prominent explanations of this trend involve technology. Technological progress is supposed to increase economies’ productivity and potential growth. So what’s going on?

In recent years, productivity growth in developed economies has been stagnating. The most prominent explanations of this trend involve technology. Technological progress is supposed to increase economies’ productivity and potential growth. So what’s going on?

PBS NewsHour asked some of us six questions about the new steel and aluminum tariffs.

Why has the dollar fallen since January 2017? My answer is an economic turnaround in the rest of the world. Also the level of the dollar remains rather high. But Larry Summers has a different answer.

I am honored that John Bogle has commented on my recent column,  "The February Stock Market Correction." In it I repeated my claim that 2017 saw a “bubble” in the #VIX – i.e., a market perception of low risk in US stocks that was unjustified by fundamentals – and I added that the bubble had burst in February. Bogle of course is the genius who made low-cost index #mutualfunds widely available. His comment & my reply are at Barron’s: “Bogle on Bubbles”.

Much has been written about the stock market correction in the time since the US market peaked on January 26 and abruptly fell 10 % (as of February 8, followed by a partial bounce-back). Some of what is said is useful, some is not. Three pronouncements concern advice to investors, the role of machines, and the connection to the real economy.

Congratulations to Ellen Johnson Sirleaf for yesterday winning the Mo Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership. She recently retired as President of Liberia. It is for people like her that the award, which pays $5 million, was originally established. I explained and evaluated the Prize, a fascinating experiment, in “The Ibrahim Prize for Excellence Among African Leaders,” published in the African Policy Journal.

It will be tough to fill the shoes of Stan Fischer as Fed vice-chair. The candidates most actively under consideration by the Administration, to serve as number 2 to Jay Powell as Chair, are Rich Clarida, Larry Lindsey, and John Williams.