Mark Kramer responds to Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson's spring 2016 article, "Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion."

Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson’s "Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion," International Security, Vol. 40, No. 4 (Spring 2016), pp. 7-44, has been named the co-winner of the 2017 Article Award given by the Diplomatic Studies Section of the International Studies Association (ISA). This annual award is presented to the author(s) of the article that best advances the theoretical and empirical study of diplomacy—particularly articles that attempt to connect the study of diplomacy with broader issues and trends in the discipline.

Richard W. Maass responds to Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson's spring 2016 article, "Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion."

Joshua Itzkowitz Shifrinson argues that, during the 1990 negotiations over German reunification, the United States made the Soviet Union an informal pledge not to expand NATO.

During the 1990 German reunification negotiations, did the United States promise the Soviet Union that it would not expand NATO into Eastern Europe? Although no written agreement exists, archival materials reveal that U.S. officials did indeed offer the Soviets informal non-expansion assurances, while keeping open the possibility of expansion and seeking to maximize U.S. power in post–Cold War Europe.

Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson responds to Michael Beckley's winter 2011/12 International Security article, "China's Century? Why America's Edge Will Endure."

The widespread concern that Iran would retaliate for an attack on its nuclear program by launching missiles at oil installations in the Persian Gulf may be largely unfounded.  Although such an attack would lead to a temporary spike in oil prices because of perceived oil shortages, Iran almost certainly does not have the missile capability to make a significant impact given the redundancies in Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure.  The threat would become serious only if Iran greatly increased the range and accuracy of its missiles, in which event the states around the Persian Gulf would be wise to increase their defenses.  In addition to demonstrating that oil is not a particularly vulnerable target, this research also suggests that, although there may be other reasons for not attacking Iran’s nuclear program, concerns about oil shortage should not be one of them.