Belfer Center Senior Fellow Karen Elliott House muses about the diplomatic steps that the Israeli Prime Minister and the Saudi Crown Prince might be willing to take with one another.

The looming question in U.S.-Saudi relations: Can the crown prince retain unchecked authority in the Kingdom? And if he does, can the U.S.-Saudi relationship—including close cooperation on Gulf security and global oil policy and large infusions of Saudi money into U.S. Treasury bills—remain undamaged? In short, can King Salman retain his son as crown prince and the U.S. as a close ally?

The case of the vanished and apparently murdered Saudi activist and writer Jamal Khashoggi is a tale with a victim and villains, but no heroes.

Oil prices are on their way up. Iranian sales have declined under pressure of a U.S. embargo. Venezuelan production is disintegrating apace with the country. Saudi production is nearing its limit, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries shows no sign of increasing production. Brent crude futures topped $80 a barrel Tuesday and may reach $100 before the end of the year.

Good news for oil-rich Saudi Arabia? In the very short run the answer is yes. But an increase in oil revenue only compounds the kingdom’s larger problems of economic and social malaise.

As Mohammed bin Salman begins his second year as crown prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, it becomes clearer that his role model is his paternal grandfather, Abdul Aziz al Saud. The uncanny similarity between these two young rulers, a century apart, offers clear clues to the country's direction today.

Since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced his intention to transform this country nearly two years ago, Saudis and foreigners alike have questioned whether he is serious or merely enjoying power. The time for doubt is over. Last week’s news that Alphabet, Google’s parent company, is in talks to build a tech hub in the kingdom is only the latest sign. Look for more such initiatives when the crown prince visits the U.S. in early March.

Change is accelerating in Saudi Arabia. Over the weekend King Salman bin Abdulaziz removed his predecessor’s powerful son as head of the national guard. The king detained 11 princes along with current and former ministers on corruption charges. Behind the move is Saudi Arabia’s young reformer, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He is gambling that the moves will be seen at home and abroad as cleansing the kingdom of tarnished old ways—not as the whim of an authoritarian ruler.

Saudi Arabia is like an obese man disfigured from decades of gluttony and idleness. Dieting is painful given his body’s cravings. Even the small exertion of walking is more unpleasant. And the inability to imagine that his sacrifice and suffering eventually will lead to good health makes it easy to revert to old habits. If, however, he will just push through the pain, good health and a better life are attainable.

"The appointment of Mohammad bin Salman, 31, as Saudi Arabia’s next king will accelerate his radical reform and further solidify the U.S.-Saudi partnership. King Salman’s long-anticipated decision to name his son crown prince almost certainly is intended to present a unified face to the kingdom’s adversaries, especially Iran—and to bolster U.S. support for a more assertive Riyadh."

“Welcome to the new Saudi Arabia,” says the youthful minister of the country’s newly minted Ministry of Entertainment. We are sitting in darkness watching the LED-lit bodies of New York dancers gyrating on an arena stage to deafening hip-hop music. Behind us, some 1,300 Saudis of all ages—robed men and abaya-covered women sitting side by side—are whooping their approval.