In celebration of the 70th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany and on the eve of the anniversary of the meeting of Soviet and American troops on the Elbe, the Carnegie Moscow Center organized a conference held April 23, 2015 in Moscow to discuss the experience of Russian-American alliance during the Second World War, as well as the experience of cooperation and rivalry after the end of the Cold War. The Elbe meeting took place on April 25, 1945.

Brigadier General (ret.) Kevin Ryan, director of the Belfer Center's Defense and Intelligence Projects and founder of The Elbe Group, spoke at the conference in Russian about the significance of the Elbe anniversary to U.S.-Russian relations today. His Russian remarks and English translation are available.

The snow is melting in Boston and it is hard not to feel the optimism this brings.  But if you are someone who worries about nuclear issues and need more good news, you can find it in an unlikely place – the new Russian Military Doctrine published this past December.

Last week, the editor for the New York Times “Room for Debate” blog asked me to comment on the question, “Should Washington and Moscow continue to work together to reduce nuclear stockpiles and cooperate to secure, or eliminate, weapons and nuclear materials despite the dispute around Russian actions in Ukraine?”  I wrote, “We should honor our New START commitments,” but, beyond that, “until Russia removes its troops from eastern Ukraine and ceases its military support to pro-Russian separatists there, the United States should suspend any discussion on future arms reductions or cooperation on securing Russian nuclear materials and weapons.”  Four other commenters disagreed with my recommendation.

Until Russia removes its troops from eastern Ukraine and ceases its military support to pro-Russian separatists there, the United States should suspend any discussion on future arms reductions or cooperation on securing Russian nuclear materials and weapons.

In March, as Washington and Moscow traded lists of people banned from traveling to their countries, a select group of U.S. and Russian retired generals met quietly in Morocco to discuss the looming crisis in Ukraine and its effect on U.S. and Russian strategic interests.  The Elbe Group, organized by the Belfer Center at Harvard Kennedy School, has been meeting since 2010 to discuss sensitive bilateral issues. The members of the Elbe Group are senior retired military and intelligence flag officers, including three- and four-star veterans from the FSB, GRU, CIA, DIA, Ministry of Defense and Department of Defense, all with strong connections into their respective governments.

What is President Vladimir Putin's next move? The answer is thus far undecided, perhaps even for Putin.

To put ourselves in Putin's shoes, writes Kevin Ryan, "Western observers and analysts have searched history for analogous moments in time. Historians tell us that if we can find similar historical circumstances, we might be better able to predict what will happen next. Some experts look to 1914 and the run-up to World War I for clues and insights. But for Putin and his inner circle, the most analogous moment in history is December 2001. Russia is playing the role of the U.S. as it basked in the initial 'success' of Afghanistan and contemplated Iraq. The parallels are uncanny."

At a time when the crisis in Ukraine and Crimea is closing down communication between the American and Russia governments, a senior group of American and Russian former military and intelligence officers met quietly in Morocco to ask each other whether there remain any areas where the two nations should continue joint efforts.  Their answer, given in a joint statement released at the end of their three day meeting in March, is yes.

"We can't know for sure what recommendations U.S. military chiefs are giving to Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and President Barack Obama about the situation in Ukraine," writes Kevin Ryan, "but it's not hard to guess.....What the diplomats will do remains to be seen over the next several days. They have some strong cards they can play."

As American and Soviet forces converged in Germany in the final days of WWII, soldiers from both armies met at the river Elbe near Torgau. That historic meeting of wartime comrades, united in the face of common threats, is the inspiration for the creation of a unique organization, the "Elbe Group."

Brigadier General Kevin Ryan (U.S. Army retired), has been appointed the Civilian Aide to the Secretary of the Army for the State of Massachusetts.  Ryan is taking on the volunteer Civilian Aide role in addition to his full-time position as director of the Defense and Intelligence Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.