The war in Ukraine was a wake-up call regarding the ability of non-state actors, such as Bellingcat, to glean valuable information from open-source data. On November 1, 2022, the Intelligence Project hosted a highly praised virtual discussion with private sector experts who tackle national security problems using publicly-available data and artificial intelligence.

Since its creation in 1947, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has been at the heart of supporting United States foreign policy and national security decision-making. From the early days of the Cold War to Russia’s war against Ukraine, the CIA has been a critical instrument of foreign intelligence collection, analysis, and operations. However, the CIA is often misunderstood, as its own work and history, particularly its successes, are rarely seen by the public. To help unpack this storied history, and in honor of the agency’s 75th anniversary, on September 16, 2022, former directors, officers, scholars, students, and the public gathered to discuss the past, present, and future of the agency. 

In the past, strategic surprise has often stemmed from a failure of imagination. Most intelligence failures are rooted in a lack of foresight or early warning of impending events. Blue sky thinking seeks to prevent these surprises by devoting more attention not just to known risks and likely scenarios, but also to low probability, high impact events. In an unprecedented step in forging ongoing global collaboration, 129 global experts gathered in Amman, Jordan, in December 2021. The conference was held under the auspices of Jordan’s Aqaba Process and facilitated by representatives from the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center’s Intelligence Project. Attendees included intelligence officers, diplomats, military officers, private sector practitioners, and academics representing 29 countries, 5 continents, and 68 government and private sector organizations. Through presentations and discussion under Chatham House Rules, the conference facilitated an open exchange of ideas on the possible next big threats from terrorism and on strategies for moving forward.

The field of private sector intelligence can often be misinterpreted on the surface level as espionage, guards and gates. Its road to professionalization has been a long one and is still evolving. Maria Robson Morrow spoke with Fred Burton on the Ontic Protective Intelligence podcast on her dissertation research on building a better understanding of private sector intelligence's role in security risk mitigation and business decision-making. The conversation touches on her latest research on pathways to entry, the impact of intelligence cooperation, and camaraderie in mitigating security risks. The author also shares what surprised her most in her research and what she plans on digging into next.

If you woke up to news of a massive cyber or Pearl Harbor-type attack on the U.S., you would want to know that a solid national security structure and plan was in place. On May 11, the Intelligence Project and Applied History Project hosted a conference to imagine a new National Security Act to replace the current act of 1947.

Intelligence agencies have struggled to define how open source intelligence fits into its broader work, but the wide breadth of publicly available information about the Ukraine conflict, combined with proactive disclosures of classified information, are providing some clarity about OSINT’s role. Lauren Zabierek and Maria Robson Morrow spoke with the Federal News Network on how the public and private sectors are leveraging open source intelligence, including challenges and opportunities.

Private sector intelligence is on its way to professionalization, but the road is a long one and the destination is uncertain. Studies of intelligence professionalization have not yet systematically analyzed private sector intelligence, a field that focuses on mitigating geopolitical and security risk and supporting decision-making. In this article, Maria Robson Morrow draws on years of empirical research of private sector intelligence with reference to five key pillars of professionalization: a shared identity, knowledge advancement, training and education, a code of ethics, and certification. She concludes with implications for professionalizing private sector intelligence and proposes further research on this understudied field.

With the looming threat of increased conflict in Ukraine, businesses around the world should be preparing now, write Paul R. Kolbe, Maria Robson Morrow, and Lauren Zabierek. Corporate security and intelligence teams have said they’re seeing an increase in cyber probes, and the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the European Central Bank have both issued warnings about potential Russian cyberattacks. At this point, companies should be taking the following steps: 1) Review business continuity plans; 2) Closely examine supply chains; 3) Actively engage peer networks, vendors, and law enforcement around cyber intrusions; 4) Instill a security mindset in employees; and 5) Make sure corporate intelligence and IT teams are working closely together on solutions.

The word “intelligence” is loaded: While some confuse it with corporate espionage, today nearly every major company has an intelligence function or is building one. Prior to Covid-19, many corporate intelligence teams largely focused on security, but the pandemic has demonstrated the broader value of intelligence. In a world of contradictory and misleading information, smart business leaders use intelligence to see around corners, mitigate risk, provide insight, and shape their decision-making. Paul Kolbe and Maria Robson Morrow offer an overview of corporate intelligence functions and provide advice on how to structure these internal teams.