With the entire world’s attention riveted on Ukraine, Kim Jong-Un is doubling down on his nuclear and missile programs and has recently tested what he claims to be a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). According to early estimates the Hwasong-17 (a.k.a. KN-27) missile could have reached the U.S. East Coast if launched on a normal trajectory. Despite South Korean doubts over the claim, the test results clearly suggest the North’s steady technological progress. Pyongyang is expected to carry out more provocations in the coming months, especially on April 15th on the occasion of the 110th anniversary of its founder Kim Il-Sung’s birth. To reassure U.S. allies in the region, some U.S. analysts advocate a high-profile announcement of new deterrence initiatives with allies such as joint exercises, and South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol seems to agree and seek more frequent drills. Talks to reiterate U.S. alliance commitments are certainly important, but such showy military exercises — which Kim typically views as a major aggression toward the North — would be a primrose path. 

In the 20th century, Japan was in many ways the weathervane of international politics. It will likely remain that in the 21st century. How so? As Europe and the United States cope with their difficulties, and as problems in China, India, Russia and elsewhere emerge more clearly, Japan is very likely to join a renascent West.