As the growth of nuclear industry during the coming decade is considered to increase, the number of cylinder shipments will expand accordingly. Beyond that, new vendors with less experience will enter the uranium conversion and enrichment market. Under such a scenario, there is no reason to discount the disappearance of interest to nuclear proliferation or illicit trafficking of nuclear material. Thus an enhanced system to track UF6 movements is a must. Better to be safe than sorry.

Olli Heinonen and Simon Henderson write that although Iran's nuclear potential will likely dominate talks between President Obama and King Abdullah on March 29, Riyadh's own nuclear plans should also be part of the discussion.

Olli Heinonen summarizes his takeaways from the IAEA report “Status of Iran’s Nuclear Programme in relation to the Joint Plan of Action,” March 20, 2014.

"In its 2010 annual Safeguards Statement [...] the IAEA determined that it 'found no indication of the diversion of declared nuclear material from peaceful nuclear activities and no indication of undeclared nuclear material or activities. On this basis, the Secretariat concluded that, for these States, all nuclear material remained in peaceful activities.' This rolling safeguards report that provided a yearly review of the status of IAEA member states’ nuclear activities was noteworthy as South Africa was, for the first time, included in the above group of states."

Olli Heinonen writes that though that there is no foolproof plan to chart outcomes, it remains very much within our control to take certain steps and actions that can make the future less uncertain and better managed its direction. The Task Force Assessment Report on Nuclear Monitoring and Verification Technology by the Defense Science Board is essential in providing a forward-looking framework and recommendations to better prepare us to prevent and shape nuclear proliferation choices.

Olli Heinonen was interviewed by the Swedish publication Hufvudstadsbladet in February 2014 about Iran’s nuclear program.

Testimony on the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal by Belfer Center senior fellow Olli Heinonen before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs's Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade, and Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa.

Nearly a month since the six-month Joint Plan of Action with Iran was announced in Geneva on November 24, the deal has yet to go into effect.  The two sides have noteven agreed on a start date for implementing the deal. Meanwhile, Iran says it is continuing to advance its nuclear program.

The first step agreement slows down Iran’s uranium and plutonium clocks, which is needed. At the same time, it is important to recognize that the agreement addresses but does not rollback Iran’s capabilities. The most significant work and hurdles lie ahead in the contours of any end-game agreement. In the meantime, good implementation, cooperation and compliance of boundaries set on Iran’s nuclear program will be a test of its new approach.

A full explanation of Tehran's past and current nuclear activities should be a vital part of any interim agreement.