This paper presents a preliminary experiment designed to determine whether costly signaling plays a role in political interactions. Drawing on the expansive signaling literature in international relations and elsewhere, we propose that the quality of solicitation materials matters because voters respond to costly signals from candidates as a shortcut for determining both a candidate’s investment in their own campaign and the degree of commitment from other voters to that candidate’s cause.

"This article demonstrates that the probability of an international crisis involving the United States declines as a presidential administration gains time in office."

This paper demonstrates that the probability of an international crisis involving the United States declines significantly as a presidential administration gains experience in office.