6 Items

Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Nayef Falah Al-Hajraf during a press conference during the 41st Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) meeting being held in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia, Tuesday, Jan. 5, 2021.

AP Photo/Amr Nabil

Paper - Middle East Initiative, Belfer Center

From #Hashtags to Legislation

    Authors:
  • Oussama Belmejdoub
  • Bilal Diab
  • Samira Kalla
  • Ha Nguyen
  • Abdulla Saif
  • Ivan Yotzov
| February 2023

Ownership of reforms by citizens is often presented as important for success. This paper explores media engagement and support for economic reforms in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using text analysis techniques on publicly available sources. Results show that while reform efforts have intensified in recent years in the GCC, these efforts tend to focus on stronger rather than weaker policy areas, potentially limiting the growth-enhancing effect of reforms. Social media analysis using Twitter shows that the population’s support for reforms has been declining. The analysis of traditional
news media points to more engagement by international than by local media. However, sentiment from international media is less positive about economic reforms in the GCC. Sentiment in international media and social media matters, as evidenced by its positive and strong correlation with FDI inflows into the GCC.

Protesters chant slogans against the regime in Cairo, Egypt, early Saturday, Sept. 21, 2019.

AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty

Paper

Contagious Protests

    Authors:
  • Simeon Djankov
  • Alou Adessé Dama
  • Ha Nguyen
| March 2021

This paper explores the spillover of protests across countries using data on nonviolent and spontaneous demonstrations for 200 countries from 2000 to 2020. Using an autoregressive spatial model, the analysis finds strong evidence of “contagious protests,” with a catalyzing role of social media. In particular, social media penetration in the source and destination of protests leads to protest spillovers between countries. There is evidence of parallel learning between streets of nations alongside the already documented learning between governments.  

Workers stand on a platform at a Saudi Aramco oil separator processing facility in Abqaiq, near Dammam, Sept. 20, 2019.

AP Photo/Amr Nabil

Paper

Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents after Oil Shocks

    Authors:
  • Simeon Djankov
  • Ha Nguyen
  • Ivan Yotzov
| March 2021

This paper explores the effect of oil shocks on electoral outcomes. Using a new polling and election data set for 207 elections across 50 democracies, the paper shows that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents. The analysis verifies that these shocks—which reduce consumption growth—are associated with worsening performance for incumbents in the runup to reelection and a reversal in the leaning of the political party in power post-election.  

People stand in a line outside a bank in Beirut, Lebanon, amid a financial crisis and a lockdown imposed by the government to help stem the spread of the coronavirus in Lebanon, March 28, 2020.

AP Photo/Zeina Karam

Paper

Reform Chatter and Democracy

    Authors:
  • Simeon Djankov
  • Ha Nguyen
  • Ivan Yotzov
| March 2021

This paper explores the dynamics of media chatter about economic reforms using text analysis from about a billion newspaper articles in 28 languages. The paper shows that the intensity of reform chatter increases during economic downturns. This increase is more significant in democracies. Using instrumental variable techniques, the analysis finds the relationship to be causal. The paper also documents that reform chatter is followed by actual reforms, suggesting that democracies benefit from a “self-correcting” mechanism stemming from changing popular attitudes toward reform. 

Cameramen film Saudi King Salman, center, as he chairs the 40th Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2019.

AP Photo/Amr Nabil

Policy Brief

A Proposal for a Stability Mechanism for the Gulf Cooperation Countries

| December 2020

A stability mechanism for the Gulf Cooperation Council would be aimed at institutionalizing solidarity and fiscal discipline among members. The Gulf Cooperation Council Stability Mechanism would issue some special obligations and lend the proceeds at low rates to its members, requiring them to undertake economic reforms in return.

In this photo released by the Lebanese Government, President Michel Aoun, center, and government ministers wear masks to help protect themselves from the coronavirus, while attending a cabinet meeting at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut.

(Dalati Nohra/Lebanese Government via AP)

Analysis & Opinions - VoxEU

Coping with a Dual Shock: COVID-19 and Oil Prices

| Apr. 01, 2020

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa face a dual shock from the COVID-19 pandemic and a collapse in oil prices. This column explores the policy options available to deal with such shocks, arguing that authorities should sequence and tailor their responses. MENA countries should first focus on responding to the health emergency and economic depression, postponing fiscal consolidation linked to the persistent drop in oil prices until the recovery from the pandemic is well underway.