41 Items

Hijacked airliner headed toward World Trade Towers on September 11, 2001

REUTERS/Sean Adair

Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Countering Terrorism With "Blue Sky" Thinking

| May 19, 2022

In the past, strategic surprise has often stemmed from a failure of imagination. Most intelligence failures are rooted in a lack of foresight or early warning of impending events. Blue sky thinking seeks to prevent these surprises by devoting more attention not just to known risks and likely scenarios, but also to low probability, high impact events. In an unprecedented step in forging ongoing global collaboration, 129 global experts gathered in Amman, Jordan, in December 2021. The conference was held under the auspices of Jordan’s Aqaba Process and facilitated by representatives from the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center’s Intelligence Project. Attendees included intelligence officers, diplomats, military officers, private sector practitioners, and academics representing 29 countries, 5 continents, and 68 government and private sector organizations. Through presentations and discussion under Chatham House Rules, the conference facilitated an open exchange of ideas on the possible next big threats from terrorism and on strategies for moving forward.

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U.S.-Russia Elbe Group Issues Joint Statement

| Apr. 09, 2019

The Elbe Group – consisting of retired senior military and intelligence officials from the U.S. and Russia – met in Reykjavik, Iceland in March 2019 to discuss a range of issues including strategic stability, cyber security, counter terrorism, the Middle East, questions related to nuclear security, the status of the Iran nuclear agreement, the future of nuclear nonproliferation, and Arctic issues.

At the conclusion of the meeting, the Group agreed on a statement of common goals.

John Breannan gives the keynote speech at a public event at the LBJ Presidential Library on Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2015

(LBJ Library Photo/Gabriel Cristóver Pérez)

Analysis & Opinions - Just Security

Why I Signed the Former CIA Officials’ Letter on Clearances: In Defense of Rule of Law

| Aug. 20, 2018

I count myself among the skeptics concerning John Brennan’s organizational changes at the CIA, but such concerns have no bearing on the revocation of his clearances of other prominent national security officials. I signed the letter by former CIA officials repudiating the president’s actions because I am convinced that our nation is in a crisis. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin

(Alexei Nikolsky/AP)

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Russia Already Gave Up on ‘Normal Relations’ with the U.S.

| July 20, 2018

When Russian President Vladimir Putin approved what U.S. authorities say was a GRU operation to meddle in the 2016 election, he undoubtedly expected it to deal a death blow to U.S.-Russian relations. U.S. intelligence would become aware of it at some point; that’s the risk of conducting an intelligence operation on this scale. The American people would surely be outraged. As in the past, both parties would unite to confront Russia. The questions that must have run through his mind: What do I have to lose? Are Russian interests fulfilled by attempting to reset this broken relationship with the Americans, or is our cause advanced by going on the offensive? For the weaker party — a country facing encroachment by NATO — isn’t offense the best defense?

Donald Trump in Syracuse, New York, April 16, 2016; Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, April 14, 2016

Carlo Allegri/Reuters; Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

Analysis & Opinions - The Cipher Brief

Top-Down Presidential Leadership: The Helsinki Summit

| July 11, 2018

Two conditions are clear as the U.S. and Russian Presidents prepare meet in Helsinki. First, U.S.-Russian relations are arguably at their lowest point since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. Second, both presidents have domestic realities that constrain their flexibility to achieve compromise in the many areas that have caused relations to falter.

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G-20 Summit on Friday, July 7, 2017, in Hamburg. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Analysis & Opinions - Just Security

Trump as a Russian Target – Through the Eyes of a Former CIA Russian Expert

| June 25, 2018

Donald Trump would have been an active target of Russian intelligence since the moment they laid eyes on him for two reasons that come straight from the classical espionage textbook: He has influence; and he is potentially vulnerable to various forms of compromise.

President Donald J. Trump addresses the nation on the South Asia strategy during a press conference at Conmy Hall on Fort Myer, Va., Aug. 21, 2017. (DoD photo by Army Sgt. Amber I. Smith)

DoD photo/Army Sgt. Amber I. Smith

Analysis & Opinions - Just Security

Trump's War-More Risk Than Reward for US Military Involvement in Afghanistan

| Aug. 22, 2017

It is ironic that when President Trump finally made his first major foreign policy decision, he ran with the advice of his “cooler heads” — the Generals he admires — over his own instincts to cut U.S. losses and get out of this jungle. In extending U.S. involvement in Afghanistan for the narrower purpose of battling the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, ISIS and associated groups, every U.S. soldier killed and wounded in Afghanistan from this day forward becomes in effect a casualty of the scourge of terrorism the president is determined to thwart.

President Donald Trump shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit in Hamburg, Germany on Friday, July 7, 2017 (AP Photo/Evan Vucci).

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Analysis & Opinions - The New York Times

Putin’s Bet on a Trump Presidency Backfires Spectacularly

| July 30, 2017

A little more than a year after the Russian effort to interfere in the American presidential election came to light, the diplomatic fallout — an unraveling of the relationship between Moscow and Washington on a scale not seen in decades — is taking its toll.