Attempting to forecast the hydrocarbons market has proven the downfall of many an energy guru.

For that reason, I am particularly grateful to former top ENI executive Leonardo Maugeri for repeatedly sticking his neck out to predict that most unpredictable of markets – the oil market.

The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: August-September 2013

If the Cold War hadn’t ended, the latest update on the number of the intercontinental missiles and bombers that the United States and Russia keep deployed against each other would have surely meant that heads would roll in Moscow. As it transpired from the New START Treaty total numbers, the US has nearly twice as many missiles and bombers deployed as Russia.

The 2011 “U.S. - Russia Joint Threat Assessment” offered both specific conclusions about the nature of the threat and general observations about how it might be addressed. This report builds on that foundation and analyzes the existing framework for action, cites gaps and deficiencies, and makes specific recommendations for improvement.

Even as this paper was being written and edited, U.S.-Russian relations have warmed and chilled. Today, as we are about to go to press, marks a particularly chilly period in recent history, with the cancellation of a planned Moscow Summit in September 2013. To some, this cold spell might signal an inapt moment to consider issues related to transcending mutual deterrence. Such a view would overlook the aims of the paper, which attempts to assess the central and enduring interests of the United States and Russia, the extent to which they coincide or conflict, and whether or not in light of these interests mutual deterrence should remain a fundamental feature of the relationship.

Georgia’s outgoing President Mikheil Saakashvili and Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili seem to be at each other’s throats most of the time. But, when it comes to campaigning for Georgia’s membership of NATO, these two high-powered political enemies band together to serenade the Alliance’s visiting officials.

It is unfortunate that decisions of such tremendous importance for the Armenian nation's future, as whether this former Soviet republic should apply for membership in the Customs Union (CU), are prepared and made without asking the Armenian public's opinion.

The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter is a forum for discussing nuclear terrorism and actions to contribute to improved joint US-Russian assessment of the threat of nuclear terrorism. Available in both English and Russian.

"So Snowden has left the building. The NSA leaker’s departure from Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport, for an undisclosed location in Russia, on Thursday is turning into a real blessing for the US-Russian relationship," writes Simon Saradzhyan. "It may sound perverse, but both Barack Obama, and, to a lesser extent, Vladimir Putin, have good cause to thank the man whom the US government has fruitlessly asked Russia to extradite and whom the Russian government has just granted temporary asylum."

"Relations between the United States and Russia today remind one of the report from the well digger, 'We hit bottom and have started to dig.' Whether it’s over issues like leaker Eric Snowden or Syria and Iran, the US and Russia seem to end up on opposite sides of most major problems," write Kevin Ryan and Simon Saradzhyan. But that trend could soon reverse – at least regarding one contentious subject – missile defense.