4 Items

Air Force Senior Airman Curtis Towne salutes as he returns home from Hainan on April 12, 2001. He was a crewmember on the U.S. Navy EP-3 aircraft that was involved in an accident with a Chinese F-8 aircraft on April 1, 2001.

S.Sgt. Adrian Cadiz/U.S. Air Force

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

The Institutional Origins of Miscalculation in China’s International Crises

| Summer 2023

Analysis of China’s national security crises from 1949 to 2012 demonstrates that national security institutions help explain the majority of its crisis miscalculations. This theoretical framework differentiates between three institutional types: integrated, fragmented, and siloed. Integrated types have a positive effect, but both fragmented and siloed types can lead to serious miscalculation.

Chinese paramilitary police and security officers wear face masks to protect against the spread of the new coronavirus as they stand guard outside an entrance to the Forbidden City in Beijing, Friday, May 1, 2020. The Forbidden City reopened beginning on Friday, China's May Day holiday, to limited visitors after being closed to the public for more than three months during the coronavirus outbreak.

AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein

Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Affairs

The Bad Advice Plaguing Beijing’s Foreign Policy

| Apr. 27, 2023

The incursion in January of a Chinese spy balloon into U.S. airspace seemed to many observers like a bad miscalculation by Beijing. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had been scheduled to travel to China the following month, but the balloon incident led to the scrapping of the much-anticipated visit. Chinese leader Xi Jinping almost certainly would have preferred to see diplomacy proceed as planned. It is likely that he would not have sanctioned this operation had he known its consequences. If he believed that the United States would simply overlook the incursion, he was clearly mistaken.