22 Items

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev meet in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, Aug. 28, 2008.

AP Photo

Analysis & Opinions - The Wall Street Journal

Obama Is Right About Talking to Iran

    Author:
  • Vali Nasr
| October 13, 2008

"Many have assumed that Russia can help solve the Iran problem, but few have considered that the reverse is also true. Iran is important to Russia's game plan and how Moscow weighs its options going forward. That makes talking to Iran an essential part of America's plans for containing Russia."

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Iran on Its Heels

    Author:
  • Vali Nasr
| June 19, 2008

Iran still has considerable influence in Iraq. It may reconstitute the Mahdi Army and pick up the fight against America, using special groups of the type suspected in the Baghdad car bombing Tuesday. It may also try to use nationalist opposition to the U.S.-Iraq "status of forces" agreement to its advantage. But Tehran will find it difficult to regain lost turf in Baghdad or Basra, or to go back to happily supporting Shiites both at the center and in the militias. It will have to choose whether it is with the state or the sub-state actors.

Paper

The Implications of Military Confrontation with Iran

    Author:
  • Vali Nasr
| April 2008

This paper is premised on the assumption that an "Iran War" could still be in the cards and that there are conceivable scenarios in which it may happen. The aim here is to explore the hypotheticals, the "what ifs." What might be the aftermath of a war? Will the scale and scope of the conflict make a difference? How might Iran react in the advent of war -- in the short run as well as the long run? Similarly, how might Iran's neighbors and the broader Muslim world react? How might these factors impact the course of the Global War on Terror? And how will they affect America's interests and capacities to protect and safeguard those interests? How should the United States think about war with Iran? The goal here is not to advocate a course of action but to probe the possible (if not necessarily probable) ways in which conflict can occur and escalate. Similarly, this paper will consider the broader implications of an Iran War -- what it will mean for Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, and how the series of events that may ensue will shape the context of U.S. policy in the years that follow.

Click here to access the full text.

Journal Article - Foreign Affairs

The Costs of Containing Iran: Washington's Misguided New Middle East Policy

    Authors:
  • Vali Nasr
  • Ray Takeyh
| January/February 2008

The Bush administration wants to contain Iran by rallying the support of Sunni Arab states and now sees Iran's containment as the heart of its Middle East policy: a way to stabilize Iraq, declaw Hezbollah, and restart the Arab-Israeli peace process. But the strategy is unsound and impractical, and it will probably further destabilize an already volatile region.

Analysis & Opinions - Christian Science Monitor

How Iran's president is being undercut

    Author:
  • Vali Nasr
| Dec. 18, 2007

Because the theocratic regime now feels immune from military retribution and is confronting a fragmented international community, it is likely to be fortified in its efforts to complete the fuel cycle. Meanwhile, Iran is cooperating with inspectors at the International Atomic Energy Agency and is judged by the CIA to have suspended critical components of its nuclear network. It has no reason to cease any of its activities.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sits in front of Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Tehran.

AP Photo

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Meet 'The Decider' of Tehran. It's Not the Hothead You Expect

    Author:
  • Vali Nasr
| December 9, 2007

When most Americans think of Iran, they probably think of its incendiary president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Since his election in 2005, Ahmadinejad has gleefully shocked the world with his defiance over Iran's nuclear programs, his ravings about a Shiite messiah, his jeremiads against Israel and his denial that the Holocaust occurred. But while Ahmadinejad is surely the regime's face, he's not its boss. Since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's death in 1989, the real power in Tehran has belonged to the country's supreme leader and top cleric, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Ahmadinejad makes all the noise, but Khamenei pulls all the strings.