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155 mm M795 artillery projectiles are stored during manufacturing process at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Scranton, Pa., April 13, 2023. The 155 mm howitzer round is one of the most requested artillery munitions of the Ukraine war. Already the U.S. has shipped more than 1.5 million rounds to Ukraine, but Kyiv is still seeking more.

AP/Matt Rourke

Seminar - Harvard Faculty, Fellows, Staff, and Students

U.S. Munitions Shortfalls: Overcoming the Preparedness Paradox

Mon., Apr. 1, 2024 | 12:15pm - 1:45pm

One Brattle Square - Room 350

Speaker: Matthew Borawski, Research Fellow, International Security Program

The U.S. defense industrial base proved ill-equipped to adequately surge ammunition production for Ukraine's fight against Russia, with the Department of Defense reporting it will take nearly three years to replenish the two million 155mm artillery rounds provided to Ukraine. Meanwhile, the United States assumes increased conventional risk to its own warfighting capabilities. How did U.S. munitions manufacturing erode, was it avoidable, and what is needed to reach sufficient capacity in the future? The answer to these questions should inform the larger, more critical question: How can the United States ensure a munitions shortage does not occur if U.S. military forces are committed to large scale combat operations in the future? Answering the research question could help the United States maintain its conventional superiority in a future conflict and minimize readiness impacts when providing lethal assistance to our Allies and Partners, including Ukraine and Taiwan. These effects would also improve our integrated deterrence strategy since robust production capacity remains a deterrent. Instead, the United States appears to be in a continuous spin-up/ramp-down cycle for ammunition production, which creates the cyclical crisis and preparedness paradox.

Invitation Only. Coffee &Tea Provided.