Diplomacy and International Politics

Most public discussion this winter reflects a conviction that Ukraine must — and can — win a decisive victory. But what constitutes a win against a country such as Russia? As we consider the road ahead, we cannot escape the brute fact that Putin commands an arsenal of roughly 6,000 nuclear weapons that could kill us all.

Ownership of reforms by citizens is often presented as important for success. This paper explores media engagement and support for economic reforms in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using text analysis techniques on publicly available sources. Results show that while reform efforts have intensified in recent years in the GCC, these efforts tend to focus on stronger rather than weaker policy areas, potentially limiting the growth-enhancing effect of reforms. Social media analysis using Twitter shows that the population’s support for reforms has been declining. The analysis of traditional
news media points to more engagement by international than by local media. However, sentiment from international media is less positive about economic reforms in the GCC. Sentiment in international media and social media matters, as evidenced by its positive and strong correlation with FDI inflows into the GCC.

NATO aspires to take the lead in understanding and adapting to the impact of climate change on security. The new Strategic Concept declares that climate change is a defining challenge of our time, with a profound impact on Allied security. Now, the Alliance and the Allies must “walk the talk” by preparing to face the emerging climate change-driven challenges and adapting their armed forces to the new climate conditions created by global warming. This paper will begin by answering the most pressing questions about NATO and climate change: Is climate change a security threat? Does climate security fit into NATO’s mission? And is NATO the best forum to address climate change? It will then review NATO’s current actions on the climate, and finally make some proposals for the Alliance to implement a climatized perspective on security to climate-proof its assets and capacities and effectively accomplish its mission and tasks.

Vibrant civil societies have proved a necessary ingredient for freedom, prosperity, and justice to thrive in Europe and the United States. Their potential contribution to constructive debate and collective action for the common good is even more relevant today, as time has come to rethink social contracts on both sides of the Atlantic. In this hour of need, Spanish leaders from all walks of life are no exception in placing a high value on civil society for its potential to re-imagine the relationships between citizens and the state in Western liberal democracies. Not by chance, influential scholars have attributed Spanish civil society a key role in making possible the successful democratic transition of the country.

The Learning Agenda is an unprecedented effort by the Department to institutionalize evidence-based learning and implement the Foundations for Evidence-Based Policymaking Act of 2018 (“Evidence Act”). The Evidence Act requires federal agencies to develop a “learning agenda” – a systematic plan to answer a set of policy-relevant questions critical to achieving the agency’s strategic objectives. It will guide the Department’s efforts over the next four years across eight questions to increase the impact of U.S. foreign policy and bolster the Secretary of State’s modernization efforts.

This event featured a keynote address followed by a panel of foreign policy and evidence-building experts for a thoughtful discussion on addressing Learning Agenda Questions 1 and 2: How can the State Department improve the effectiveness of its diplomatic interventions to better advance foreign policy objectives? How can the Department improve the effectiveness and sustainability of its foreign assistance efforts?

It is well known that factionalism and corruption have long stood in the way of the kinds of structural reforms that Lebanon needs. But an overlooked problem is the inaction of foreign powers that could easily compel domestic changes if they had the right incentives.

On April 26, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, in partnership with the HKS Africa Caucus, hosted His Excellency Dr. Martin Kimani, Kenya’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, to share his perspective on current global crises.  Ambassador Kimani made headlines earlier this year for his public rebuke of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during a speech at the UN Security Council, demonstrating the powerful role Africa can play in global affairs, in a new era of great power competition.

Thank you to the Harvard Kennedy School Africa Caucus and the Belfer Center for the opportunity to deliberate with you today. Thank you Thomas Kisimbi for the kind introduction, and your generosity in taking your valuable time to shaping this event and my time at Harvard.

On April 6, 2022,  the Belfer Center's Future of Diplomacy Project and Indo-Pacific Security Project as well as the Center for Public Leadership hosted a hybrid seminar with Ambassador Shivshankar Menon, former National Security Advisor of India and former Foreign Secretary in India’s Ministry of External Affairs, and Ambassador Richard Verma, former U.S. Ambassador to India and Belfer Center Senior Fellow, on India’s foreign policy and U.S.-India relations in a changing world order. The discussion explored why India abstained from recent U.N. votes deploring Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, what that means for U.S.-India relations, both bilateral and through the Quad, and how the war in Ukraine will affect geopolitics in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific. Gopal Nadadur, MPA/ID candidate at the Harvard Kennedy School moderated this conversation.

We study how large shocks impact individuals’ skilling decisions using data from the largest online learning platform in Saudi Arabia. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic brought about a massive increase in online skilling, and demand shifted towards courses that offered skills, such as telework, likely to be immediately valuable during the pandemic. Consistent with a model where individuals trade off reskilling costs with their expectations of future labor market conditions and their duration of work, we find that shifts into telework courses were largest for older workers. In contrast, younger workers increased enrollments in courses related to new skills, such as general, occupation-specific, and computer-related skills. Using national administrative employment data, we provide suggestive evidence that these investments in skills in early 2020 helped users maintain employment over the course of the pandemic.