Diplomacy and International Politics

Foreign Affairs has recently published a number of articles on how the United States should engage with the Taliban government in Afghanistan, extremist forces within the regime, how the West can help ordinary Afghans, and the fate of the country’s women. To complement these essays, Foreign Affairs asked a broad pool of experts for their take. As with previous surveys, Foreign Affairs approached dozens of authorities with expertise relevant to the question at hand, along with leading generalists in the field. Participants were asked to state whether they agreed or disagreed with a proposition and to rate their confidence level in their opinion. Two Belfer Center experts participated, International Security Executive Editor Jacqueline L. Hazelton and Future of Diplomacy Project Senior Fellow Paula Dobriansky.

The entanglement and feedback loops among the domestic and the geopolitical cycles of distrust have resulted in a cohesive threat to democracy: a downward political spiral that is pulling societies towards enmity. This spiral feeds on and generates destructive human emotions at massive scale, such as outrage and hatred, that lead to violence, war, and autocracy, so it can be better understood as a dangerous global maelstrom of distrust, which could sink democracy worldwide. As showcased by historical evidence, domestic and international forces do not act in isolation from each other. Democratic backsliding, the rise of authoritarianism and totalitarianism, and the politics of aggression generated feedback loops in the 1930s, that resulted in WWII. Similar forces are again working in the 2020s. If massive distrust can wreck democracy worldwide, it follows that the regeneration of trust is the path to democratic revitalization.

Ownership of reforms by citizens is often presented as important for success. This paper explores media engagement and support for economic reforms in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using text analysis techniques on publicly available sources. Results show that while reform efforts have intensified in recent years in the GCC, these efforts tend to focus on stronger rather than weaker policy areas, potentially limiting the growth-enhancing effect of reforms. Social media analysis using Twitter shows that the population’s support for reforms has been declining. The analysis of traditional
news media points to more engagement by international than by local media. However, sentiment from international media is less positive about economic reforms in the GCC. Sentiment in international media and social media matters, as evidenced by its positive and strong correlation with FDI inflows into the GCC.

The Middle East Initiative is pleased to announce that Dr. Omar Razzaz, former Prime Minister of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, will serve as a non-resident Emirates Leadership Initiative Senior Fellow during the Spring and Fall 2022 semesters at Harvard Kennedy School’s Middle East Initiative (MEI).

Former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns and former Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications Ben Rhodes join Andrea Mitchell to talk about Biden's next steps on Iran and Russia. Burns says that Biden's "speech today at the Munich Security Conference has put the United States squarely back on center stage globally."

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook analyzes Kamala Harris' performance at the U.S. Vice Presidential debate.

American democracy is facing pressure from all sides: For months, there have been partly violent protests against systemic racism and police violence of the “Black Lives Matter” movement. The COVID pandemic has already claimed over 200,000 lives and has extreme economic consequences. Coupled with a polarized media landscape and the growing influence of social media, the pandemic has further exposed deep social divisions along ideological, economic and ethnic fault lines. In addition, the Trump administration is stepping up its escalatory description of the integrity of the American electoral system - what some consider to be a rigid electoral and party system in need of reform. How will the social conflicts affect the understanding of (American) democracy? How is the political establishment contributing to alienation from the Constitution?

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook spoke to German national radio on President Trump's COVID diagnosis and how it will affect the next few weeks of the campaign.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook from Harvard Kennedy School criticizes the course of the debate. In terms of content, she sees Biden ahead.

It was the first TV duel between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Many topics were up for debate, but there were fewer concrete discussions because the US president barely allowed his political opponent to speak. When Joe Biden commented on his content, Trump confronted Biden with his family history.