Environment and Natural Resources

Expert elicitations are now frequently used to characterize uncertain future technology outcomes. However, their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and overconfidence is a persistent problem. The authors provide quantitative evidence of how these choices affect experts' estimates.

In order to make R&D funding decisions to meet particular goals, such as mitigating climate change or improving energy security, or to estimate the social returns to R&D, policy makers need to combine the information provided in this study on cost reduction potentials with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of these technological changes. The authors conclude with recommendations for future directions on energy expert elicitations.

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is among the cornerstone policies created to increase U.S. energy independence by using biofuels. Although greenhouse gas emissions have played a role in shaping the RFS, water implications are less understood. We demonstrate a spatial, life cycle approach to estimate water consumption of transportation fuel scenarios, including a comparison to current water withdrawals and drought incidence by state. The water consumption and land footprint of six scenarios are compared to the RFS, including shale oil, coal-to-liquids, shale gas-to-liquids, corn ethanol, and cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass.

Melissa Chan and Laura Diaz Anadon of the Energy Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project presented at the 2009 Annual Meeting of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS).

"Acting on Time on Energy" conference, held at Harvard on 18–19 September 2008, brought together business leaders, investors, academics and government officials, to discuss energy pollcy for the next U.S. Administration. Click here for photos.

At the ETIP Seminar Series on April 15, 2008, Cesano presented the key factors that lead to the development of the Brazilian ethanol and biodiesel industries.

As the Biofuel industry surges with investments and new entrepreneurial players, Kennedy School scholars are analyzing it working to develop new ways to create carbon-neutral fuels. Madeline Drexler writes on the Kennedy School's input on this emerging new way to lower greenhouse gas emissions and become less dependent on non-renewable energy resources.

Gallagher articulates China's need for institutions, policies, and enforcement mechanisms that can foster technology transfer and environmental protection, and she charts a path forward for how the United States and China can work together to meet tomorrow's climate challenges.

The Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group (ETIP) seeks to combat global warming and climate change by promoting strategies for efficient energy technologies in China, India, and the United States, such as advanced coal technologies, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and advanced vehicle technologies.