International Security

Speaker: Hyun-Binn Cho, Postdoctoral  Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

During international crises, states often take costly actions to signal resolve. Such coercive actions, however, can put greater political and psychological pressure on the opponent to counter-escalate. When costly signals are more "provocative," do they make unwanted crisis escalation more likely, or do they make the signal-sender look tough and help induce the opponent to back down? Indeed, why do states sometimes appear to deliberately engage in provocative actions to demonstrate resolve? This seminar addresses these puzzles using game-theoretic analysis and two case studies of crises involving China and the United States.

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

Speaker: Daniel Sobelman, Assistant Professor of International Relations, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Drawing on the conflict between Israel and the Hamas-run Gaza Strip since the mid-2000s, this seminar will analyze the dynamics and the strategic implications of intra-war coercion in an asymmetric conflict between an established state and an emerging violent non-state actor. The speaker will examine Hamas's adoption of Hezbollah’s military doctrine and strategic vocabulary and explain the manner in which the Hamas movement has been able to harness its military capabilities to impose and threaten heavier costs on Israel while reducing Israel's freedom of action vis-a-vis the Gaza Strip.

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

Speaker: Melissa Willard-Foster, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Vermont

Contrary to the dominant view that instability makes targets of coercive pressure more likely to concede, the speaker will argue that instability prolongs their resistance. Leaders' policies reflect their domestic political interests, thus, conceding to policy change invites political costs. The more powerful a leader's domestic opposition, the more likely it can benefit when the leader is forced to make a costly concession. Although resistance may be costly too, targets can more easily mitigate these costs than they can convince the challenger to change its demands. As a result, instability is more likely to encourage a target's resistance. The speaker tests her argument on Libya's rapprochement with the West, showing that Qaddafi refused to surrender the Pan Am flight 103 bombing suspects due to domestic political costs. It was only after Qaddafi recovered his power and the United States softened its terms that he complied, which paved the way for the 2003 deal.

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

A Project on Managing the Atom seminar with Ariel Petrovics, Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Research Fellow with the Project on Managing the Atom and International Security Program. 

Speaker: Jacqueline L. Hazelton, Assistant Professor, Department of Strategy and Policy, U.S. Naval War College

A now little-known British adventurer named James Brooke ruled absolutely over a substantial territory in Sarawak, on the island of Borneo in what is now Malaysia, in the 19th century. He bequeathed his country to his descendants, who ruled until the last "White Rajah" sold Brooke's Sarawak to the British Crown after World War II. The story of the Brookes of Sarawak is full of tropes from Romantic-era novels, from the prodigal son returning to England unrecognizable from smallpox scars, to battles with pirates and headhunters, to the suicide of a faithful man of business who helps his master perpetrate a fraud and then kills himself out of remorse. Behind the drama are serious questions about how the three "White Rajahs" controlled their multi-ethnic, multi-faith, mountainous, unruly territory for a century. the speaker will argue that the Brooke rajahs used a combination of political accommodation of local political elites and a balancing strategy to build fighting alliances against troublesome challengers to their rule.

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

A seminar with Stephen Herzog, Stanton Nuclear Security Predoctoral Fellow with the Project on Managing the Atom and International Security Program.

Co-sponsored by the Korea Institute at Harvard University.

Speaker: Narushige Michishita, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan

Moderator: Susan Pharr, Director, Program on U.S.-Japan Relations; Edwin O. Reischauer Professor of Japanese Politics, Department of Government, Harvard University

In this seminar, Professor Michishita will examine developments on the Korean Peninsula over the past few decades, and pose several different future scenarios. He will then explain how Japan would respond to each scenario, and how each scenario will also affect Japan's security and foreign policies in the long run.

Co-sponsored by the Harvard Korea Institute's SBS Foundation Research Fund and the International Security Program

Speakers: Sheila A. Smith, Senior Fellow for Japan Studies, Asia Program, Council on Foreign Relations 

Noriyuki Shikata, Associate, Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, Harvard University

Joseph S. Nye, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor, Emeritus, Harvard Kennedy School 

Moderator: Susan Pharr, Director, Program on U.S.-Japan Relations; Edwin O. Reischauer Professor of Japanese Politics, Department of Government, Harvard University

This panel will examine contemporary developments in Japanese foreign and security policies. Sheila Smith will draw on her recent book, Japan Rearmed: The Politics of Military Power, and examine the shifting debate within Japan regarding the use of force. Noriyuki Shikata will discuss contemporary Japan-China diplomatic relations, drawing on his recent experience as Envoy Extraordinary and Minister Plenipotentiary, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of Japan in Beijing. Joseph Nye will examine Japanese foreign and security policies in the context of U.S. grand strategy in Asia.

Co-sponsored by the International Security Program

Speaker: Sébastien Philippe, Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

Most successful nuclear weapons programs have benefited from significant foreign assistance for the acquisition of nuclear materials, sensitive equipment, and know-how. Such assistance is often kept secret, even after states decide to put an end to their nuclear weapons programs or ambitions. This seminar will discuss the policy and verification implications of this source of opacity on the reconstruction of past nuclear military activities as part of non-proliferation or denuclearization agreements.  It will build upon an historical and technical analysis of nuclear assistance between France, Israel, and South Africa and conclude by discussing the impact of discovering previously hidden information on existing policies and ongoing diplomatic processes.

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

Speaker:  Cameron Tracy, Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

States often spend vast sums on weapon production, yet have trouble mustering the resources necessary to eliminate stockpiled weapons for arms control and disarmament purposes. Stockpile reductions have proven particularly challenging with respect to weapons of mass destruction, for which weaponizability is embedded in materials rather than assembled devices. Their elimination commonly requires expensive, technologically demanding processes. U.S. chemical weapon and weapons plutonium stockpile reduction efforts provide useful case studies for investigation of the factors governing the success of reductions programs, as they faced similar challenges yet yielded divergent outcomes. This project involves comparative analysis of both reductions programs, focusing on the technical, organizational, and sociopolitical contexts that aided or hindered elimination.

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.