Science, Technology, and Public Policy

A Project on Managing the Atom Nuclear Nonproliferation Practitioners Seminar with Joyce Connery, Board Member and former Chairman at the Defense Nuclear Facility Safety Board.

Speaker: Wu Riqiang, Research Fellow with the International Security Program and Project on Managing the Atom

 

A simplified nuclear exchange model will be developed to evaluate China’s past and current nuclear retaliatory capability against the Soviet Union and the United States. The modeling suggests that according to Western standards, China’s nuclear retaliation has been and remains far from “assured.” This result reflects China’s special nuclear philosophy, which emphasizes the role of nuclear taboo and prioritizes political control over survivability. However, in the face of U.S. advances in the areas of counterforce and missile defense, China probably has to continue to improve its nuclear forces qualitatively and, if necessary, quantitatively, in order to maintain its deterrent level.

During this seminar, Sahar Nowrouzzadeh will examine historical trends in Iran's nuclear-decision making and discuss the role of U.S. foreign policy in shaping such decision-making.  This event comes on the heels of President Trump's May 8th decision to have the United States cease fulfilling its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or "Iran nuclear deal," reached between the P5+1, EU and Iran in 2015. The event will be off-the-record.