Science, Technology, and Public Policy

In the first of two articles on post-COP28 carbon financing, Research Fellow Ely Sandler shares insights on the legacy of COP28.

In the second of two articles on COP28 outcomes, Ely Sandler shares insights on the some of the changes needed to scale carbon finance.

At a moment when arms control is deeply troubled and may be dying, two eminent scholars, Marc Trachtenberg and the late Robert Jervis, have taken a fresh look at the beginnings of strategic arms control fifty years after the signing in Moscow of the SALT I agreements in May of 1972. They do so from different vantage points, writes Steven E. Miller.

Ely Sandler argues that COP27 progress on the Paris Agreement's Article 6 may be a smoking gun for the death of voluntary carbon markets - but suggests a better model that might take its place.

David M. Allison argues that in ascending order of predictive power, warnings of an imminent nuclear strike would come from Russian whistleblowers, the U.S. intelligence community, and Putin himself.

Ely Sandler and Daniel Schrag propose a new approach to Article 6 of the Paris agreement, arguing that states must use cross-border investment to finance the energy transition. By linking additionality to an investment’s impact on cost of capital, Sandler and Schrag demonstrate how Article 6 can leverage blended finance to de-risk private investment, creating a new model of public private partnership. The paper uses case studies from the Middle East and North Africa region to demonstrate the potential economic, environmental and political benefits of cooperation on Article 6.  

For months, evidence has accumulated that North Korea may be preparing its seventh nuclear explosive test. Continuous warnings by analysts and the media about this possibility are a sobering reminder that Pyongyang's continued pursuit of a larger nuclear arsenal remains a challenge for the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the nonproliferation regime. This continues to be the case even as the public and leaders around the world have largely shifted their attention to the nuclear dimensions of the war in Ukraine.

What was accomplished? COP26 created pressure for some countries to produce revised  Nationally Determined Contributions, helped catalyze new pledges to reduce emissions (including from India), led to the approval of the rules to govern international cooperation and carbon markets (the Paris Rulebook) addressing the issue of double counting, and served as the Launchpad for some novel initiatives that could play a useful role. Among the announcements that were made, was one that recognizes the importance of strategic investment and government action to lower the cost of technologies to reach carbon neutrality.

What types of foreign policy cues are most likely to turn public opinion against a popular emerging norm? Since 2017, the U.S. government has sought to discredit the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and its nuclear nonpossession norm among the largely prodisarmament American public. The authors fielded a national U.S. survey experiment (N=1,219) to evaluate the effects of these elite cues as well as social group cues on public opinion. Their study thus offers one of the first experimental assessments of public attitudes toward nuclear disarmament.

Kelly Sims Gallagher asserts that politicians' pledges of dramatic long-term reductions should not let them off the hook for their failure to achieve more modest progress in the short term.