Geopolitics of Energy Project

On Monday, the newly elected Prime Minister of Ireland, Leo Varadkar, emerged from his meeting with his British counterpart, Theresa May, promising good news. Varadkar said he was satisfied May would not jeopardize the peace agreement in Northern Ireland in her efforts to secure the support of that province’s Democratic Unionist Party for her government.

Yet even if this is true, it is unrealistic to hope that a deal between the Tories and the DUP will have no impact on the politics of Northern Ireland. And if Varadkar is wrong, we could be headed toward a political stalemate or worse, and a possible economic crisis in that corner of the United Kingdom.

The latest big news out of the Middle East is that Saudi Arabian King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud has ousted the crown prince and installed his 31-year-old son, Mohammed bin Salman, in that position. While the world waits to see more of the reaction from Saudis and others in the region, a few quick thoughts come to my mind.

President Donald Trump feels his recent trip to the Middle East was a great success, and the actions by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies to isolate and punish Qatar this week were the first fruits of his new policy. In reality, the schism between Gulf Cooperation Council allies is a setback for U.S. interests, and the reset between Washington and Riyadh, heralded by the administration and many observers, if not a farce, is clearly far from complete.

The world's energy system needs rebuilding. The Paris agreement to keep global warming “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels” demands that we replace fossil fuels with solar, wind, geothermal and biomass energy. The price tag is vast: investing US$120 trillion in energy projects between 2016 and 2050, at twice the current annual rate of $1.8 trillion a year, will deliver a 66% chance of achieving the Paris target. We must halve oil production and stop using coal to produce electricity.

President Donald Trump's decision to remove the U.S. from the Paris climate agreementis yet another manifestation -- alongside the budget submitted to Congress and the president's speech at NATO headquarters in Brussels -- of how he continues to see U.S. interests as narrowly economic, and U.S. influence as exerted solely through hard power.

In contrast to the fireworks at some recent OPEC meetings, this week’s gathering in Vienna looks comparatively dull.

President Donald Trump prides himself on being unpredictable and, thus, no one knows what to expect of his first trip abroad.  But when it comes to the first stop, Saudi Arabia, we can sure it will be very unlike the visits of past U.S. leaders to Riyadh when it comes to one vital topic: oil. 

The secret to Maugeri’s analysis? An original, bottom-up, field-by-field analysis of most of the world’s oil exploration and development projects.

The global oil market remains highly vulnerable to the actual status of oil supplies. There’s a paradox: so far, OPEC’s effort to convey the message of an exceptional level of compliance with cuts has helped sustain oil prices – but in so doing it has also incentivized oil output increases in many countries.

There are many good reasons to object to the Trump administration's new ban on allowing people from seven predominantly Muslim Middle East countries to travel to the U.S. and halting the acceptance of Syrian refugees.  I am among the many Americans ashamed that our great country could so easily push aside its history of caring for people with the most desperate needs in the world.  I also am among the national security analysts who don't see how this helps deliver on the promise of protecting the U.S. from terrorism, and worry that they will inflame the resentment and anti-Americanism that fuel attacks against our citizens at home and abroad.