Intelligence Project

On June 5, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter met with U.S. diplomatic and military leaders in Stuttgart, Germany to review America's response to Russian aggression in Crimea and Ukraine. His review of strategy follows a May 12 meeting by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry with President Vladimir Putin in Sochi. After this visit, Kevin Ryan asks, "is the U.S.-Russian relationship set to improve or get worse?"

In celebration of the 70th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany and on the eve of the anniversary of the meeting of Soviet and American troops on the Elbe, the Carnegie Moscow Center organized a conference held April 23, 2015 in Moscow to discuss the experience of Russian-American alliance during the Second World War, as well as the experience of cooperation and rivalry after the end of the Cold War. The Elbe meeting took place on April 25, 1945.

Brigadier General (ret.) Kevin Ryan, director of the Belfer Center's Defense and Intelligence Projects and founder of The Elbe Group, spoke at the conference in Russian about the significance of the Elbe anniversary to U.S.-Russian relations today. His Russian remarks and English translation are available.

In March, as Washington and Moscow traded lists of people banned from traveling to their countries, a select group of U.S. and Russian retired generals met quietly in Morocco to discuss the looming crisis in Ukraine and its effect on U.S. and Russian strategic interests.  The Elbe Group, organized by the Belfer Center at Harvard Kennedy School, has been meeting since 2010 to discuss sensitive bilateral issues. The members of the Elbe Group are senior retired military and intelligence flag officers, including three- and four-star veterans from the FSB, GRU, CIA, DIA, Ministry of Defense and Department of Defense, all with strong connections into their respective governments.

What is President Vladimir Putin's next move? The answer is thus far undecided, perhaps even for Putin.

To put ourselves in Putin's shoes, writes Kevin Ryan, "Western observers and analysts have searched history for analogous moments in time. Historians tell us that if we can find similar historical circumstances, we might be better able to predict what will happen next. Some experts look to 1914 and the run-up to World War I for clues and insights. But for Putin and his inner circle, the most analogous moment in history is December 2001. Russia is playing the role of the U.S. as it basked in the initial 'success' of Afghanistan and contemplated Iraq. The parallels are uncanny."

Michael Morell is a non-resident senior fellow at the Belfer Center. Prior to joining the Center in September 2013, he served 33 years with the Central Intelligence Agency, the last three-and-a-half as Deputy Director, a position from which he ran the day-to-day operations of the Agency. Within the CIA, Morell also served as the Director for Intelligence, Executive Director, and twice as Acting Director. Currently, he is a member of President Obama’s Review Group on Intelligence and Communications Technology.

What can the United States do to thwart the nuclear ambitions of its allies? Dr. Kogan analyzes past cases where the United States was able to leverage its alliance commitments to stop friendly states from going nuclear. He then asks what lessons these past nuclear negotiations hold for today.  In the coming decade, key U.S. allies in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia) and East Asia (South Korea, Japan) may consider reducing their reliance on U.S. security guarantees by acquiring independent nuclear deterrents.  In conversation with Project Director Kevin Ryan, Dr. Kogan discusses Washington's options in confronting these contemporary allies with nascent nuclear appetites.

"We can't know for sure what recommendations U.S. military chiefs are giving to Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and President Barack Obama about the situation in Ukraine," writes Kevin Ryan, "but it's not hard to guess.....What the diplomats will do remains to be seen over the next several days. They have some strong cards they can play."

As American and Soviet forces converged in Germany in the final days of WWII, soldiers from both armies met at the river Elbe near Torgau. That historic meeting of wartime comrades, united in the face of common threats, is the inspiration for the creation of a unique organization, the "Elbe Group."

Brigadier General Kevin Ryan (U.S. Army retired), has been appointed the Civilian Aide to the Secretary of the Army for the State of Massachusetts.  Ryan is taking on the volunteer Civilian Aide role in addition to his full-time position as director of the Defense and Intelligence Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

Dr. Ellis raises an interesting question: Does the pursuit of offensive cyber capabilities undermine domestic security? The conversation highlights a growing area of concern and ongoing debate.