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Rouhani

Russia President

Blog Post - Iran Matters

A Possible Trump Administration’s Iran Policy: Constraints and Options

    Author:
  • Ephraim Kam
| Jan. 20, 2017

A key foreign affairs issue for the Trump administration will be its policy on Iran, as was the case also for the Obama administration. But we have no idea what approach it will take, an uncertainty amplified by the fact that Trump has no experience whatsoever in foreign policy, and no idea whose input he will accept in shaping it. It’s not as if we have no information about his attitude – during the election campaign, Trump made his intention on Iran very clear – but, as with other topics, it is unclear how he will act when once he is forced to translate his intentions into action and realizes that reality is far more complicated than he imagined.

Kerry and Hollande

Philippe Wojazer/Reuters

Blog Post - Council on Foreign Relations Press

Paved With Good Intentions? France's Middle East Peace Conference

| Jan. 16, 2017

The Madrid peace conference in 1991 to launch comprehensive Arab-Israeli negotiations was a diplomatic triumph. The 2007 Annapolis conference relaunched peace-making and a new, well-prepared three track security, economic, and political process on pre-negotiated terms of reference just a few years after the violent second Intifada. These were important moments—historically, and diplomatically.

Despite best intentions, the 2017 Paris peace conference was neither historic nor constructive. The meeting was both poorly timed and ill-prepared, such that the two main parties—the Israelis and Palestinians—stayed away. Even Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was otherwise occupied. The absence of the two main protagonists to the conflict was the least of it. The meeting simply underlined outdated thinking that, left uncorrected, will harm future international diplomatic efforts to deliver peace to the Holy Land.

 

Blog Post - Nuclear Security Matters

Applying a Learned Hand to Nuclear Security

| Jan. 03, 2017

“There are precautions so imperative that even their universal disregard will not excuse their omission.”  Last month, at the IAEA’s International Conference on Nuclear Security:  Commitments and Actions, Kathryn Rauhut reminded participants of this finding by Judge Learned Hand in The T. J. Hooper v. Northern Barge Corporation (1932) case.  Judge Hand’s opinion is a pillar of U.S. tort law, but subsequent statutes (e.g. the Price-Anderson Act, and its international ilk), regulations, and international borders, complicate direct application of the “Hooper” principle to nuclear security, at least in a legally binding manner.

Blog Post - Views on the Economy and the World

Outlook for 2017

| Jan. 03, 2017
Five journalist’s questions about the economic outlook in the New Year and my answers: In the first year of Trump’s presidency, what do you predict for the US economy in 2017?The US economy is currently at or near full employment, for the first time in 9 years.  So there is limited capacity for an acceleration of growth in the medium term.  Mr. Trump is fairly likely to follow through with his proposals for massive tax cuts and spending increases (which the economy needed 5 years ago, but were blocked by Republicans).