Analysis & Opinions - The National Interest

5 Reasons Why the Saudi Oil Attacks Won't Lead to War with Iran

| Sep. 20, 2019

Miscalculation is unlikely when open conflict would come with high costs for both countries, costs that neither their leaders nor their publics are willing to accept.

Almost immediately after Saturday's attack on a major Saudi Aramco oil production facility in Abqaiq, the first fingers were pointed at Iran. While Tehran's Houthi allies in Yemen claimed responsibility, unnamed U.S. officials told the media Iran had launched cruise missiles and drones from its territory. As Saudi oil production halved and U.S. gasoline prices spiked, President Donald Trump raised the stakes. He warned that the United States was "locked and loaded"  following identification of the perpetrator. This led numerous outlets to claim that a U.S.-Iran war is likely or even inevitable. Fortunately, there are five reasons why it's not....

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Allison, David M. and Stephen Herzog."5 Reasons Why the Saudi Oil Attacks Won't Lead to War with Iran." The National Interest, September 20, 2019.

The Authors

Herzog Headshot

Stephen Herzog

  • Associate, Project on Managing the Atom
  • Former Predoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom, 2020–2021
  • Former Stanton Nuclear Security Predoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom, 2019–2020
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