Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Policy
Asia Has Three Possible Futures
The competition between the United States and China will decide the continent's fate—and one of them has a head start.
I spent the last week of August in South Korea, attending a conference on security studies sponsored by the Korea National Defense University and giving lectures at the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies and at Sungkyunkwan University. As you might expect, the trip got me thinking about the evolving strategic environment in Asia. There's a lot at play these days: an escalating trade war between the United States and China, North Korea's growing nuclear arsenal and improved missile capabilities, deteriorating relations between South Korea and Japan, and increased cooperation between the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Toss in the Afghanistan peace talks and India's heavy-handed actions in Kashmir, and you have a pretty full diplomatic agenda.
At times like this, it's useful to step back from today's headlines and look at the big picture. And for a realist like me, the most important factors to consider are, first, the balance of power between the United States and China and, second, the likely response of other Asian countries to any significant shifts in that balance. These elements aren't the only things that matter, of course, but the relative capabilities of the world's two most powerful nations—one of which happens to be located in Asia—are bound to cast a long shadow over all the other countries in the region....
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The full text of this publication is available via Foreign Policy.
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Belfer Communications Office
For Academic Citation:
Walt, Stephen M.“Asia Has Three Possible Futures.” Foreign Policy, September 5, 2019.
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I spent the last week of August in South Korea, attending a conference on security studies sponsored by the Korea National Defense University and giving lectures at the Chey Institute for Advanced Studies and at Sungkyunkwan University. As you might expect, the trip got me thinking about the evolving strategic environment in Asia. There's a lot at play these days: an escalating trade war between the United States and China, North Korea's growing nuclear arsenal and improved missile capabilities, deteriorating relations between South Korea and Japan, and increased cooperation between the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Toss in the Afghanistan peace talks and India's heavy-handed actions in Kashmir, and you have a pretty full diplomatic agenda.
At times like this, it's useful to step back from today's headlines and look at the big picture. And for a realist like me, the most important factors to consider are, first, the balance of power between the United States and China and, second, the likely response of other Asian countries to any significant shifts in that balance. These elements aren't the only things that matter, of course, but the relative capabilities of the world's two most powerful nations—one of which happens to be located in Asia—are bound to cast a long shadow over all the other countries in the region....
Want to Read More?
The full text of this publication is available via Foreign Policy.- Recommended
- In the Spotlight
- Most Viewed
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Book - I.B. Tauris
Triple Axis: China, Russia, Iran and Power Politics
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Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and UiT The Arctic University of Norway
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