Belfer Iran Brief: March 24 deadline solidifies, Khamenei agrees that “no deal is better than a bad deal,” and other news

Highlights

• Kerry in Munich: “If we're not able to make the fundamental decisions that have to be made over the course of the next weeks [until the March 24 deadline], literally, I think it would be impossible to extend.”

• Zarif in Munich: “I don’t think if we don’t have an agreement, it’ll be the end of the world. I mean, we tried, we failed, fine. … I do not believe another extension is in the interest of anybody.”

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during weekly cabinet meeting: “Major powers and Iran are galloping toward an agreement that will enable Iran to arm itself with nuclear weapons.”

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• US Secretary of State John Kerry on Meet the Press: “If we're not able to make the fundamental decisions that have to be made over the course of the next weeks [March 24 deadline], literally, I think it would be impossible to extend. I don't think we would want to extend at that point. Either you make the decisions to prove your program is a peaceful one, or if you're unable to do that, it may tell a story that none of us want to hear.” (Meet the Press, 2/8)

• Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif in Munich: “I don’t think if we don’t have an agreement, it’ll be the end of the world. I mean, we tried, we failed, fine. … I do not believe another extension is in the interest of anybody.” (Washington Post transcript, 2/8; Wall Street Journal, 2/8)
  • Addressing domestic critics, Zarif said that “some people unfortunately believe that sanctions that have been imposed on Iran are an asset for them. I want to disabuse them of this. Sanctions are a liability. You need to get rid of them if you want a solution.”
  • Zarif reportedly told Kerry that failure in nuclear talks would herald demise of President Hassan Rouhani, a comment he later denied. (Reuters, 2/7; Reuters, 2/8)

• Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave a nod of support to Iran’s nuclear negotiators, saying that a nuclear deal would mean “that one side would not end up getting all it wants” and affirming that he “would go along with any agreement that could be made.” (BBC News, 2/8; Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2/8; Reuters, 2/8)
  • He noted that he agrees with President Barack Obama (and, implicitly, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) that “no deal is better than a bad deal.”
  • He continued to call for immediate removal of all sanctions and rejected phased removal of sanctions.
  • Khamenei also criticized negotiators’ decision to use two deadlines — March 24 for political framework agreement and June 30 for technical annexes: “We don't approve of this as we don't trust the other side. They would use the general agreement to put pressure on us on details. Any agreement should be reached in one stage.”

• Obama said he does not see extending negotiations beyond March 24 as “being useful if they have not agreed to the basic formulation and the bottom-line that the world requires to have confidence that they’re not pursuing a nuclear weapon.” (Reuters, 2/9; AP, 2/9)
  • Obama in interview: “Does this in fact prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon? And if the answer is yes, then it's a good deal. If the answer is no, then it's not a deal that I'm interested in striking. There may be some technical arguments, in part because there are some who will only be satisfied with the Iranian regime being replaced. They don't even like the idea of Iran having any nuclear technology or nuclear know-how.” (Vox, 2/8)

• IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said there “has not been significant progress” between Iran and the IAEA in resolving issues related to Possible Military Dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program. Amano said Zarif agreed to “further intensify” dialogue. (Wall Street Journal, 2/8; Reuters, 2/7)

• In speech, Rouhani appealed to hardliners by lashing out against US and Israel for what he called their hypocritical stance on Iran’s nuclear program. “They tell us, ‘We don’t want Iran to make atomic bombs’ — you who have made atomic bombs,” he said. (AFP, 2/5;New York Times, 2/4; Office of the President, 2/4)
  • He asked: “You have to ask of those who built the atomic bomb and provided the bombs to the Zionist regime, [if] the atomic bomb was able to provide security for the West, America and the Zionist regime?”

• American and Iranian negotiators are considering a nuclear compromise by which: (1) Iran keeps 10,000 centrifuges but reconfigures them to reduce efficiency; (2) uranium hexafluoride stockpile is limited; (3) most of LEU produced is shipped out. (AP, 2/3)
  • Israeli officials said American negotiators had agreed to “80 percent” of the Iranian position and plan to allow the Islamic Republic to retain 7,000 centrifuges. (Jerusalem Post, 1/30)
  • In separate report, Israeli officials conveyed concerns from European diplomats that the US is willing to allow Iran to maintain large number of centrifuges in return for “guaranteeing regional stability.” (Jerusalem Post, 2/3)

• Iran’s ballistic missile program “has been discussed and will continue to be discussed” by P5+1 negotiators and Iran, US State Department said. Iranian negotiator Abbas Araqchi said report is false. (State, 2/2; Tehran Times, 2/3)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Iran is circulating new, more favorable contracts to develop its oil industry if the nuclear negotiations succeed. An oil ministry official said contracts provide “higher potential profits and lower investment risks” by allowing foreign companies to be involved in production through joint ventures with Iranian companies. (Reuters, 2/3)

• Iran is allegedly selling hundreds of thousands of tons of oil in the United Arab Emirates by using ship-to-ship transfers and blending Iranian oil with products from other countries, actions that would violate sanctions. (Reuters, 2/4)

• Gas condensate sales rose 42 percent over past 10 months to $12.1 billion. (Reuters, 2/5)

Iranian domestic politics

• No significant developments.

US-Iran relations

• In response to questions for his confirmation hearing as Secretary of Defense, Ash Carter wrote that a “good deal” with Iran “is one that resolves the international community’s concerns with Iran’s nuclear program and prevents it from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The best way to do that is through a comprehensive solution that, when implemented, will ensure that, as a practical matter, Iran cannot acquire a nuclear weapon and that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively and verifiably peaceful.” (Advanced Policy Questions for Carter, 2/4)
  • Asked whether ISIL presented a largest threat to the US in Middle East, Carter replied: “I hesitate to say ISIL only, because in the back of my mind is Iran, as well…So I think that we have two immediate, substantial dangers in the Middle East. One is [ISIS] and one is Iran.” (ABC, 2/4; Wall Street Journal, 2/4)
  • On Iran’s role in Iraq: “I have concerns about the sectarian nature of Iran’s activities in Iraq. The United States must continue to make clear to the Iraqi government that Iran’s approach in Iraq undermines the needed political inclusion for all Iraqi communities, which is required to ultimately defeat ISIL.” (Advanced Policy Questions for Carter, 2/4)

• In new National Security Strategy, the Obama administration wrote that “we have made clear Iran must meet its international obligations and demonstrate its nuclear program is entirely peaceful. Our sanctions regime has demonstrated that the international community can—and will—hold accountable those nations that do not meet their obligations, while also opening up a space for a diplomatic resolution.” (National Security Strategy, 2/6)

• In Worldwide Threat Assessment, the Defense Intelligence Agency continues to “assess Iran’s goal is to develop capabilities that will allow it to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons, should a decision be made to do so. The regime faces no insurmountable technical barriers to producing a nuclear weapon, making Iran’s political will the central issue.” (DIA, 2/3)
  • Assessment: “Iran and North Korea now consider disruptive and destructive cyberspace operations a valid instrument of statecraft, including during what the U.S. considers peacetime.”

• Henry Kissinger to Senate Armed Services Committee: “Nuclear talks with Iran began as an international effort, buttressed by six UN resolutions, to deny Iran the capability to develop a military nuclear option. They are now an essentially bilateral negotiation over the scope of that capability through an agreement that sets a hypothetical limit of one year on an assumed breakout. The impact of this approach will be to move from preventing proliferation to managing it.” (Testimony, 1/29)

Geopolitics and Iran

• Quds Force chief Qassem Suleimani visited Lebanon to pay “tribute” to Hizballah operatives killed in a recent Israeli attack. He met with Hizballah chief Hassan Nasrallah and laid wreaths at the graves of Jihad and Imad Mughniyeh. (Press TV, 1/29; Daily Star, 1/30)

Israel

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during weekly cabinet meeting said “the major powers and Iran are galloping toward an agreement that will enable Iran to arm itself with nuclear weapons.” He termed the agreement under consideration as “bad and dangerous.” (Prime Minister’s Office, 2/8)
  • Netanyahu confirmed he will go ahead with March 3 speech before joint session of Congress, despite reports from Jerusalem that he was considering altering the format of his controversial address. He is also scheduled to address AIPAC Policy Conference during his US visit. (Reuters, 2/9; AP, 2/9)

• In new poll, 61% of Jewish Israelis believe “there is a high chance that Obama will approve the signing of an agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue even if the Israeli government makes clear that, in its view, the agreement endangers Israeli security.” 29% disagreed. The results were clearly split along party lines. (Israel Democracy Institute, 2/3)

• IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jaffari said Hizballah’s rocket attack on Israeli troops in Golan Heights — in which two IDF soldiers were killed — was “minimum response” to Israel’s killing of IRGC general last month. (Al-Monitor, 1/30)

• The intelligence service in Uruguay concluded that a fake bomb placed outside the Israeli embassy in Montevideo was orchestrated by Iranian embassy. In response, Uruguay expelled a senior Iranian diplomat. (Ha’aretz, 2/6; AFP, 2/6)

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.