Belfer Iran Brief—Negotiations are extended and other news

Highlights

• The P5+1 and Iran agreed to extend the deadline for negotiations on a final nuclear deal to November 24th.

• EU High Representative Catherine Ashton will stay on in her chairperson role at P5+1 talks even after she steps down as EU foreign policy chief in October.

• Chinese imports of Iranian petroleum reached 630,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2014. 

Diplomacy and the nuclear issue

• The P5+1 and Iran agreed to extend the deadline for negotiations on a final nuclear deal to November 24^th. (NYT, 7/18/14, Al-Monitor, 7/18/14) Note: Under the terms of the extension, Iran will convert its 20% enriched oxide material to fuel plates for the Tehran Research Reactor and will receive $2.8 billion in previously frozen funds.

• The IAEA confirmed that Iran is meeting its nuclear obligations under the Joint Plan of Action and has started the process of turning its lower-enriched uranium into oxide. (Reuters, 7/20/14)

• Western diplomats are considering frontloading sanctions relief as part of a final nuclear deal with Iran in an effort to produce Iranian concessions. (Reuters, 7/17/14)

• Several House Democrats reported that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry signaled his openness to new sanctions against Iran in a closed-door meeting. (Al-Monitor, 7/17/14) Note: The State Department issued a quick denial of any policy change, saying that “sometimes Members hear…what they want to hear.

• For the first time, an Iranian proposal put forward in Vienna included a “modest reduction in nuclear enrichment.” (WSJ, 7/14/16, NYT, 7/14/16)

• Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s brother, Hossein Fereydoun, joined the Iranian delegation in Vienna this week. (Bloomberg, 7/14/14)

• Echoing last week’s speech from the Supreme Leader, the Iranian government website NuclearEnergy.ir published a report on Iran’s “practical enrichment needs.” (Iran Primer, 7/14/14)

• EU High Representative Catherine Ashton will stay on in her chairperson role at P5+1 talks even after she steps down as EU foreign policy chief in October. (WSJ, 7/19/14)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Iranian President Rouhani announced an economic stimulus package for the country. (Tehran Times, 7/16/14)

• Chinese imports of Iranian petroleum reached 630,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2014. (WSJ, 7/21/14) Note: Chinese import numbers include both crude oil, which the U.S. counts in determining sanctionable transactions, and condensates, which do not count.

• Tehran denied reports that it had sold oil to Sri Lanka and South Africa under the interim nuclear deal. (Tehran Times, 7/20/14)

• Congressional Republicans argued for additional sanctions against Iran once the July 20^th deadline for a final deal is passed. (Al-Monitor, 7/15/14)

Iranian domestic politics

• A survey of prominent human rights activists in Iran found unanimous support for nuclear negotiations. (LobeLog, 7/17/14)

• Iranian MPs wrote a letter to President Rouhani asking him to combat “environmental degredation” in Iran. (Tehran Times, 7/16/14)

US-Iran relations

• Senators Bob Menendez and Lindsay Graham demanded in a letter that any final nuclear deal last at least 20 years. (FP, 7/14/14)

• U.S. business groups expressed their opposition to new unilateral sanctions against Iran. (FP, 7/17/14)

Geopolitics and Iran

• Reports place Quds Force commander General Qassem Suleimani on the front lines of the battle between Shiite militias and ISIS in Iraq. (AP, 7/17/14)

• U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel confirmed that Iranian and Russian aircraft were flying combat missions in Iraq in the fight against ISIS. (The Hill, 7/12/14)

Israel

• No significant developments.

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.