Belfer Iran Brief—Nuclear talks resume and other news

Highlights

• Diplomats were optimistic that a nuclear deal could be reached before the Nov. 24 deadline, but an Iranian diplomat predicted that talks would be extended if there is no agreement.

• An IAEA visit to Iran concluded with little progress on resolving the possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program.

• Following weeks of positive developments, Iran-Saudi relations took a sour turn after the Saudi foreign minister accused Iran of “occupying” Syria and Iran criticized Saudi treatment of Shia in Bahrain.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif, US Secretary of State John Kerry and EU chief negotiator Catherine Ashton met in Vienna on Wednesday, in first round of P5+1 talks since the UN General Assembly in September. (Reuters, 10/14)
  • Iranian President Hassan Rouhani: “We will find a solution to the nuclear subject and we believe that the two sides will certainly reach a win-win agreement.” (Press TV, 10/13)
  • Zarif: “There are outstanding differences, but it doesn’t mean that these differences cannot be resolved.” (Fars News, 10/15)
  • Iranian negotiator Abbas Araqchi hinted that extension beyond Nov 24 deadline is possible: “Iran and the P5+1 are very serious on resolving the remaining disputes until November ... but everything including an extension is possible if we cannot reach an agreement.” (Reuters, 10/10)
  • A U.S. official said there is no current discussion about extensions. (Reuters, 10/15)
  • Kerry: “I don’t believe [a deal is] out of reach…But we have some tough issues to resolve. I am not going to prognosticate. We need to continue to have some serious discussions and see where we are.” (Al-Monitor, 10/14)

• IAEA visit to Tehran on 10/7 and 10/8 made little progress toward resolving two outstanding concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program. (IAEA, 10/9; Reuters, 10/9)
  • IAEA: “Iran did not propose any new measures during the meetings in Tehran. Iran and the Agency agreed to meet again, at a date to be announced.”
  • Iran’s ambassador to IAEA: Talks were “very constructive.” 
  • Iran defended its decision not to issue entry visa for member of IAEA team — assumed to be “Western atomic bomb expert” — that visited Iran in August. Tehran said it has “sovereign national right” to reject visits and said the individual was not an inspector and had “particular nationality.”  (Reuters, 10/8; AP, 10/9)

• An Iranian opposition group accused Iran of moving its nuclear research group to a new facility in order to deceive UN inspectors. (Reuters, 10/8)

• Rouhani gave members of the Majles an update on nuclear talks: “There is no difference between the two sides over whether a power plant should be constructed in Arak, or whether Iran should possess enrichment technology, or about the Fordow center and the continuation of Iran’s peaceful nuclear activities, or whether alleged military issues should be resolved; and there is difference only about details and the quantity of matters.” (Press TV, 10/8)

• The office of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated eleven “red lines” for nuclear negotiations, including his demand for Iran’s capacity of 190,000 SWU. (Belfer Center translation)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Business leaders gathered in London for “The 1^st Europe-Iran Forum,” which aims to prepare European businesses for “post-sanctions investment and trade.” (European Voice, 10/15)
  • Israeli diplomat: “Their purpose is to create a public atmosphere that would eventually make European governments more amenable to compromise regarding the nuclear negotiations with Iran.” (Times of Israel, 10/15)

• European Union sanctions were lifted on National Iranian Tanker Company. (Times of Israel, 10/8)

• Iran is seeking to quadruple its steel output over next 10 years. (Reuters, 10/5)

• Iran is following Saudi Arabia in dropping its oil prices for Asian markets in November. (Bloomberg, 10/10)

Iranian domestic politics

• Iran’s judiciary warned reformist newspapers against publishing names of former ministers implicated in corruption investigations. (Al-Monitor, 10/14) Note: The order, by Iran’s hardline judiciary, apparently targeted newspaper coverage of corruption under former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a fellow hardliner who appears to be preparing for political comeback.

• In speech at Tehran University, Rouhani called for greater academic freedom and tolerance at universities. He added that Iranian universities should not be afraid of attracting foreign students or encouraging Iranian students to study abroad. (AP, 10/7, Reuters, 10/7) Note: This is latest installment in struggle between Rouhani and hardliners regarding the future of Iran’s universities and student movement, which played important role in 2009 Green Movement. In August, Majles fired Rouhani’s science minister.
  • Anti-Rouhani lawmakers have set sights on impeaching the energy minister. (Bloomberg, 10/9)

• Iran’s intelligence minister, Seyed Mahmoud Alavi, said security forces thwarted two bomb plots during rallies in July. He said authorities arrested 130 members of “Takfiri terrorist groups,” a term used for Sunni extremist groups. The attacks were supposedly set to coincide with International Quds Day, an event “opposing Israel’s occupation of [Jerusalem].” (Fars News, 10/7) Note: Timing for release of three-month-old information is unclear but could be part of Iran’s efforts to emphasize ISIL threat to country.

• In heavily publicized event, Khamenei went on short hike on mountain north of Tehran. (Supreme Leader, 10/10) Note: Public relations blitz aimed to dispel rumors about Khamenei’s health following prostate surgery last month.
  • Khamenei pardoned or commuted sentences of 1,256 prisoners. Granting of clemency corresponded with two Muslim holidays. (Press TV, 10/11)

• Iran will increase the length of mandatory military service from 21 months to 24 months, but the military will offer exemptions based on the number of children a conscript has. (Al-Monitor, 10/12) Note: Policy change may reflect Iranian leadership’s concern about lagging birth rates.

US-Iran relations

• See “Diplomacy and nuclear issue”

Geopolitics and Iran

• Khamenei blamed “America, Zionism, and especially the veteran expert of spreading divisions, the wicked government of Britain” for creating ISIL as a tool to divide Sunni and Shia Muslims and to fight Iran. (Reuters, 10/13)

• Majles Speaker Ali Larijani said the fight against ISIL could serve as confidence-building measure between US and Iran: “There is not a natural, direct link between the nuclear talks and the situation in the region… But they can be linked because there is confidence to be built here.” (AP, 10/15)

• In response to ISIL siege on Syrian city of Kobani, Iran’s foreign ministry said, “we are ready to help” if Damascus requests its assistance. Spokeswoman said Iran would send aid and medicine as soon as possible. However, Iran warned against “military meddling” by Turkey. (Press TV, 10/8; Fars News, 10/10)
  • Social networking sites show demonstrations in Iran calling for intervention to save Kobani’s residents. Protestors gathered in Tabriz, Mashhad and Tehran. (Uskowi, 10/8)

• Op-ed by conservative news website Khabar Online asked Quds Force Commander Qassem Suleimani to intervene to save city of Kobani: “These days, bad news is coming from the city of Kobani. Everyone knows if the siege on Amerli was not broken what would have happened to the people of Amerli. Now everyone is assuming that will happen to Kobani.” It called on Suleimani to intervene to “prevent a genocide.” (Al-Monitor translation, 10/8)

• Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said that “in many conflicts, Iran is part of the problem, not the solution” and called on Iran to remove “occupying” forces in Syria. (Al-Arabiya, 10/13)
  • One of Iran’s deputy foreign ministers, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, said the Saudi claim is “at odds with the atmosphere of the diplomatic negotiations between the two countries” and raised concerns about treatment of Shia in Bahrain. (Tehran Times, 10/15)

• The US threatened to withhold military aid to Lebanon if it accepts arms donations offered by Iran. (Al-Akhbar, 10/14)
  • Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon: “Any side that is opposed to Iran forwarding arms and ammunitions to the Lebanese Army is neither heeding Lebanon’s interests, nor caring about the campaign against terrorism.” (Tehran Times, 10/14)

• Four police officers in southeastern Iran, near border with Pakistan, were killed in attack on police patrol and on police station. Security forces in province of Sistan and Baluchistan made several arrests. (Fars News, 10/10) Note: Cross-border attacks between Pakistani militants and Iranian border forces are common, as are terrorist attacks against Shia pilgrims attempting to reach Iran.
  • Iran’s police chief criticized the “irresponsibility of a neighboring country” and threatened that if Pakistan is unable to arrest militants, Iran would “chase them beyond its borders.” (Tehran Times, 10/11)
  • A police plane carrying three senior officers investigating the cross-border attack crashed near the capital of Sistan and Baluchistan, killing the officers and four others. The police denied that the plane was shot down, instead blaming the crash on mechanical failure. (Fars News, 10/14)

• Two Russian warships docked in Iran’s Caspian Sea port city of Bandar-e Anzali on a mission of “peace and friendship,” the Russian commander said. (Tehran Times, 10/14)

Israel

• In rare talks about the threat posed by ISIL, Iranian representatives warned US officials that Israel would be in danger if the West tries to overthrow Syrian President Bashar Assad. (AP, 10/11)

• Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon reiterated Israel’s concerns about a bad nuclear deal with Iran: “There are many countries that have civilian nuclear programs but have no centrifuges. The very fact that Iran has been insisting on [maintaining] these core capabilities and that the world powers have given up on this raises many flags. That’s why the agreement — if one is achieved — will not be a good one.” (Al-Monitor, 10/14)

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.