Belfer Iran Brief—Resumption of talks, “political conspiracy,” and other news

Highlights:

• U.S. and Iranian officials resumed nuclear discussions on Monday, and P5+1 negotiations will resume at political director level on Dec. 17 in Geneva.

• The IAEA formally rejected Iran’s offer to tour Marivan site, saying access was irrelevant to the agency’s investigation into activities at Parchin.

• Rouhani: “The fall of the oil prices is not just something ordinary and economical… The main reason for it is (a) political conspiracy by certain countries against the interest of the region and the Islamic world.” 

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• U.S. and Iranian officials resumed nuclear discussions on Monday, and P5+1 negotiations will resume at political director level on Dec. 17 in Geneva. (AFP, 12/15; European Union, 12/12)
  • Rouhani said in speech that “some people may not like to see the sanctions lifted. Their numbers are few, and they want to muddy the water… The overwhelming majority of our nation - intellectuals, academics, theologians, the greats, and the leadership - are in favor of getting the sanctions removed.” (Reuters, 12/15)

• Ali Akbar Salehi, chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, publicly confirmed that Iran will abide by at least part of “extended” terms of Joint Plan of Action, saying that Iran will not conduct testing of IR-8 centrifuges with uranium hexafluoride: “We also do not intend to inject active UF₆ gas into these centrifuges as long as the negotiations are underway.” (Tehran Times, 12/9;Nuclearenergy.ir, 12/9; Fars News, 12/9; Tehran Times, 12/14)
  • The “extended” JPOA includes four restrictions that the U.S. said Iran agreed to, including converting 35kg of 20% oxide into fuel plates, increasing snap inspections of centrifuge facilities and limiting research on new centrifuge models, such as IR-8. (Reuters, 12/1; Al-Monitor, 12/1; Arms Control Association, 12/2)
  • However, AEOI spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi rejected that Iran accepted any concessions: “The conditions for extending the nuclear negotiations to July 1, 2015 were like the conditions reining the extension of the previous deadlines and no new undertaking has been added to it.” (Fars News, 12/6)
  • U.S. officials have briefed Congress on these four limits in effort to stave off new sanctions efforts. (AP, 12/5)

• The IAEA formally rejected Iran’s offer to tour Marivan site, saying access was irrelevant to the agency’s investigation into activities at Parchin. The IAEA “explained clearly to Iran – on more than one occasion – that an offer of a visit of Marivan does not help address specific concerns related to the issue of large-scale high explosive experiments,” it said. (Reuters, 12/11)

• Salehi also rejected a proposal, leaked during latest round of negotiations, that Iran would ship reactor fuel internationally for fabrication: “Had we wanted to produce fuel in another country, we would have done that already. However, the point is that we have decided to carry out the entire process of fuel production cycle on the Islamic Republic’s soil and do it in Iran.” (Tehran Times, 12/9)

• The U.S. State Department rejected claim that it downplayed Iran’s alleged illegal procurement of components for the Arak facility. (Foreign Policy, 12/8; AP, 12/9)
  • Spokeswoman Jen Psaki: “We have a regular and ongoing dialogue with the United Nations on sanctions evasions issues related to Iran, and we bring possible issues to its attention when we have relevant information.”
  • AEOI spokesman: “Even if any parts were purchased, that would not be inconsistent with the Geneva agreement.” (Mehr, 12/9;Reuters, 12/9) Note: This is correct; illicit procurement violates UN Security Council resolutions, not JPOA (the Geneva agreement). 

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Rouhani said that a “political conspiracy,” not global energy supply and demand, is responsible for the fall in oil prices: “The fall of the oil prices is not just something ordinary and economical… The main reason for it is (a) political conspiracy by certain countries against the interest of the region and the Islamic world.” (Reuters, 12/10)
  • Vice President Eshag Jahangiri: “Even if the conspirators reduce the price of oil to $40, we’ll manage the country well.” (Al-Monitor, 12/10)

• China’s state-run oil company renewed its deal with National Iranian Oil Company for the same volume of crude oil, 240,000 bpd, in 2015 as in 2014. (Reuters, 12/12)

• Rouhani is reinstating a national economic planning body – known as Management and Planning Organization – reversing one of Ahmadinejad’s first economic decisions. Rouhani faced criticism that it took 15 months since his election to fulfill this campaign promise. (Al-Monitor, 12/8)

• A multi-year rally in Iran’s stock market faded in 2014, due to uncertainty regarding nuclear deal. (Bloomberg, 12/15)

• An Indian conglomerate is planning a so-called “oil-for-steel deal” with Iran, which would allow Iran to use frozen oil revenue to purchase Indian steel. (Reuters, 11/28)

Iranian domestic politics

• Lawmakers passed a bill ordering taxation of massive entities overseen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, including Setad, an organization valued at $95 billion controlled personally by the supreme leader. (Reuters, 12/11)

US-Iran relations

• Hackers originating in Iran launched a cyber attack against Sheldon Adelson’s flagship casino in Las Vegas, wiping clean three-quarters of company computers. The attack began two months after Adelson’s October 2013 suggestion to detonate nuclear weapon in Iran. (Bloomberg, 12/11)
  • Bloomberg: “Other countries have spied on American companies, and they have stolen from them, but this is likely the first time—occurring months before the late November attack on Sony Pictures Entertainment [attributed to North Korea]—that a foreign player simply sought to destroy American corporate infrastructure on such a scale.”
  • The FBI issued confidential report detailing recent Iranian hacking operations and urging companies to be alert for intrusions targeting defense, energy and educational sectors. Report detailed operations publicized earlier this month by cyber security company Cylance. (Reuters, 12/13)

• An amendment to omnibus spending bill requires secretary of state to provide reports every 30 days on implementation of JPOA and “any extension of or successor to that agreement.” (House Amendment to Senate Amendment, Pages 1195-1196)

• Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian — held by Iran since July — faced his first charges in Tehran courtroom, but the charges were not made public. (AP, 12/7)

• Khamenei condemned reports of CIA torture, writing that “US govt. is symbol of tyranny against humanity.” (Khamenei_ir, 12/10; Al-Monitor, 12/11)

• Revolutionary Guard Deputy Commander Hussein Salami: “When senior US officials use the term ‘military option’ it is only for psychological purposes. It is an outdated bluff. It is a banal and decayed theory. (MEMRI, 11/29) 

Geopolitics and Iran

• Iranian, Iraqi and Syrian representatives held trilateral talks in Tehran about approach to countering ISIL. (Reuters, 12/9)

• Iran agreed to resume export of oil to Pakistan after three-year suspension. (Mehr News, 12/10)

• A Hamas delegation visited Tehran in an effort to repair ties between the Gaza-based group, which the U.S. considers a terrorist organization, and Iran. (AFP, 12/8) Note: Relations improved during summer’s Gaza war but were previously strained by Hamas’ opposition to Assad.

Israel

• Israel is not pushing for additional sanctions on Iran while talks continue, according to senior intelligence official. (Reuters, 12/11)Note: The policy appears at odds with Israel’s supporters in Congress.

• Israel owes Iran $100 million for breaking a contract over the construction of an oil pipeline, a Swiss arbitration panel ruled. Israel and the Shah of Iran worked together following Sinai Campaign in 1956 to create pipeline to carry Iranian oil. (The Jerusalem Post, 12/10)
  • Note: According to Israeli lawyer who analyzed case, Iran chose to pursue damages through arbitration panel instead of suing Israel directly, which would acknowledge legitimacy of Jewish state.

“Red lines,” “points of no return,” and military strikes

• No significant developments.

Uncertain or dubious claims

• No significant claims.