Belfer Iran Brief—Twenty-eight days until nuclear agreement deadline, and other news

Highlights:

• U.S. negotiator Wendy Sherman said in a speech that if nuclear talks fail, “the responsibility will be seen by all to rest with Iran."

• Ayatollah Mohammad-Reza Mahdavi Kani, chairman of Assembly of Experts, died at the age of 83.

• The commander of Iran’s navy, met in Beijing with China’s defense minister and pledged future cooperation and additional joint naval exercises.

Diplomacy and nuclear issue

• Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman said in a speech that “we have made impressive progress on issues that originally seemed intractable. We have cleared up misunderstandings and held exhaustive discussions on every element of a possible text.” (State, 10/23)
  • Re linking talks to regional cooperation: “Given the turbulence roiling in the Middle East today, the temptation to link the nuclear question to other topics is understandable. However, all parties have agreed that this should be a single-track negotiation, with its own defined set of participants, its own logic, and a clear bottom line.”
  • Re prospect for failure: “We hope the leaders in Tehran will agree to the steps necessary to assure the world that this program will be exclusively peaceful and thereby end Iran’s economic and diplomatic isolation and improve further the lives of their people. If that does not happen, the responsibility will be seen by all to rest with Iran. We encourage Iran to make the right choice.”
  • Re outsiders’ view on talks: “Some worry that it will fail. Others seem to fear that it will succeed.”
  • Speech part of aggressive push to rally US domestic support for deal. (Wall Street Journal, 10/23)

• In response to the speech, Iranian negotiator Seyyed Abbas Araqchi said that “Iran will not accept the existence of even one sanction in the comprehensive nuclear agreement” and reiterated that “no machine or equipment will be dismantled, the country’s research and development will not be impaired.” (Tehran Times, 10/25)

• Securing an agreement with Iran before the Nov. 24 will be “extremely, extremely challenging,” U.S. diplomat said, latest indication that idea of another extension in nuclear talks is gaining traction. (Los Angeles Times, 10/25)

• Negotiators engaged in two days of expert-level talks in Vienna. (Press TV, 10/21; Fars News, 10/24)

• Diplomats leaked accounts of concessions and potential compromises:
  • Araqchi told the Majles that the U.S. is “coming [to] terms with 4,000 active centrifuges,” according to parliamentarian briefed on talks. (Mehr News, 10/20)
  • Iranian negotiators reportedly offered to compromise on timing of lifting sanctions “and would accept initially lifting just the latest, most damaging sanctions.” Concession was dismissed by Western negotiators as trivial and by Iran’s Foreign Ministry as an attempt to derail talks. (Reuters 10/21;Tasnim, 10/21)
  • The Foreign Ministry spokeswoman reiterated that Iran demands that sanctions be lifted, not simply suspended. (Tehran Times, 10/23)

Sanctions and Iran’s economy

• Boeing sold “aircraft manuals, drawings and navigation charts and data” to Iran Air, the country’s flagship carrier, in its first sale of aviation equipment to Iran since 1979. (Securities and Exchange Commission filing)

• Iranian parliamentarians expressed skepticism that economic growth data released by government was accurate. In September, the government announced 4.6% growth compared to last year, which one representative called “a fable.” In addition, the announcement that unemployment fell to 9.5% was met with incredulity, given independent assessments that the rate is more than 18%. (Al-Monitor, 10/22)

• The Financial Action Task Force, an inter-governmental organization that monitors financial crime, warned countries to “protect the international financial system from the on-going and substantial money laundering and terrorist financing risks emanating” from Iran and North Korea. (FATF, 10/24)

Iranian domestic politics

• Ayatollah Mohammad-Reza Mahdavi Kani, chairman of Assembly of Experts, died at the age of 83. Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi – who served as acting chairman since June, when Kani fell into coma – was named successor. (AFP, 10/21; Reuters, 10/21) Note: Assembly of Experts has power to select and dismiss the Supreme Leader.
  • Kani was elected as chairman in 2011 after Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani resigned (Rafsanjani is currently chairman of Expediency Council).
  • Death “leaves the traditional conservatives within the Islamic Republic without a prominent head and at the mercy of more extreme leaders.” (Al-Monitor, 10/23)
  • Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei presided over funeral in Tehran, which was attended by top officials. (Tasnim, 10/23)

• Unidentified assailants attacked at least four women with acid in Isfahan, reportedly because they were not appropriately veiled. Attacks coincide with introduction of a law that would empower vigilantes to enforce Islamic standards to promote virtue and prevent vice. Iran has sought to downplay connection between veiling and the attacks. (The Guardian, 10/20)
  • President Hassan Rouhani condemned the attacks: “The sacred call to virtue is not the right of a select group of people, a handful taking the moral high ground and acting as guardians. It is upon all Muslims to exhort love, respect for others and human dignity.” (New York Times, 10/23)
  • Several thousand demonstrators gathered in Isfahan to protest against attacks, shouting comments such as “we do not want to propagate virtues by acid” and “death to extremists.”
  • Four men arrested in connection with the attacks were freed due to lack of evidence. (AFP, 10/25)

• As world oil prices drop, Khamenei told gathering of “highly talented youth” that Iran must rely on “internal forces” – intelligence and scientific advancement, driven by youth – instead of on oil. (Tehran Times, 10/23)
  • Khamenei: “Running our country on oil revenue leaves Iran's economy at the mercy of major policymakers in the world…Instead of relying on its mineral resources, Iran should rely on the talent and potential of its youth.”

• About 20 percent of marriages in Iran lead to divorce, according to new statistics. (Reuters, 10/22)

US-Iran relations

• William Burns retired as Deputy Secretary of State but will continue as adviser to P5+1 talks. (Al-Monitor, 10/24)

• A group of 37 NGOs signed a letter urging members of Congress not to interfere if Obama decides to suspend sanctions against Iran using executive action. Report followed backlash from a New York Times story outlining White House plan to bypass Congressional approval to immediately relieve some sanctions if negotiations succeed. (PDF of letter, 10/23)
  • “A naïve insistence on complete Iranian capitulation on enrichment will likely lead to the fracturing of the international sanctions regime, an unrestricted and unmonitored Iranian nuclear program, and yet another war in the Middle East.”
  • Letter signed by groups including: National Iranian American Council, J Street, and the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

Geopolitics and Iran

• Trying to drum up support for Iran’s World Against Violent Extremism initiative, Rouhani announced that Ebola does not compare to threat of terror: “The disease of terrorism and extremism is more dangerous than Ebola and the only way to fight this threat is sympathy, coordination and cooperation among countries.” (Fars News, 10/27)

• Majlis speaker Ali Larijani praised Hizballah, the Lebanese terrorist organization controlled by Iran, for playing the most significant role fighting terrorism in the region. (Tehran Times, 10/25)

• In meeting alongside Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi, Khamenei pledged Iran’s support for Iraq in fight against ISIL but said he believes Iraq can defend itself without “need for foreign presence.” (AFP, 10/21)
  • Khamenei: “We stand beside you and will seriously defend your government like the previous government… Iran recognizes the security of Iraq, (our) neighbor and brother country, as its own security.”
  • Rouhani: “The Islamic Republic of Iran [has been] supporting Iraqi nation and army in fighting terrorists since the first day, will keep this approach and will not withhold any support to Iraqi nation.” (Office of the President, 10/21)
  • Iranian Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance Ali Jannati: “Had there been no support by Iran, the ISIL terrorists would have entered Baghdad by now.” (Fars News, 10/22)
  • Abadi’s visit lasted two days and included meetings with Rouhani, Rafsanjani and other leaders. (AFP, 10/20)
  • Iranian and Iraqi trade ministers also announced goal to increase bilateral trade to $30 billion/year, five-fold increase. (Tehran Times, 10/23)

• Border guard commanders from Iran and Iraq met to discuss security arrangements, especially as large numbers of Shiite pilgrims are expected in holy cities of Karbala and Najaf in coming days. (Fars News, 10/26)

• Russia and Iran established a “joint operations room” in Baghdad, involving 60 experts from Russian government, according to widely cited yet unconfirmed reports in Iranian media. (YJC; Radio Free Europe, 10/23)
  • Russian National Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev, in visit to Tehran: “Iran has been one of Russia’s key partners in the region and it will remain so in future.” (Tehran Times, 10/21)

• Rear-Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, commander of Iran’s navy, met in Beijing with China’s defense minister and pledged future cooperation and additional joint naval exercises. (AP, 10/23; IRNA, 10/23)

• Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi announced that security services arrested “elements who sought to carry out surveillance work for foreigners” in Bushehr Province. (Press TV, 10/22)

• Iranian border guards fired six mortar shells toward small town on border with Pakistan, drawing Pakistani fire in response. Iran’s border police commander denied any exchange of fire took place. (BBC News, 10/24; Press TV, 10/24)
  • A senior police commander sought to allay concerns of a threat to Iran’s eastern border and touted sophisticated surveillance equipment police have deployed: “The country's Eastern borders are currently in the best security conditions despite the few moves made by the outlaws and enemies.” (Fars News, 10/26)

Israel

• Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon met in Washington with U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel to express concerns about agreement being sought with Iran. (AFP, 10/21)