Analysis & Opinions - Sydney Morning Herald

Chances of Second Korean War Between 20 and 25 Percent

| Sep. 06, 2017

Having followed closely the events on the Korean Peninsula for the better part of 35 years, I believe the prospect of a second Korean War remains highly unlikely.

The reality is that it has now become an increasing possibility, but not a probability. Until recently most analysts would have regarded the prospect of a renewed conflict on the Korean Peninsula as a 5 per cent possibility. But because of a range of new factors, that possibility has now increased to between 20 and 25 per cent.

This reassessment has been driven by key advances in North Korea's capabilities – and the policy responses to these advances on the part of the US, China and the North Koreans themselves.

Want to Read More?

The full text of this publication is available via the original publication source.
Read Full Article
For more information on this publication: Belfer Communications Office
For Academic Citation: Rudd, Kevin.“Chances of Second Korean War Between 20 and 25 Percent.” Sydney Morning Herald, September 6, 2017.

The Author

Recommended
In the Spotlight
RSS
A detailed look at China’s development of a hydrogen bomb in fewer than three years, quicker than all other initial nuclear weapons states.
'New Cold Wars' are “more complex, more dangerous than the old one, because China and Russia are teaming up together.”
While U.S. media reports blame Iran and its drone attacks for “pouring gasoline on a region that is already in flames,” there's a lot more to the story, and “most of it reflects poorly on the United States.”
Most Viewed

Tags