Constraining Iran's Nuclear Program: Assessing Options and Risks

Presentation at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

Matthew Bunn presented "Constraining Iran's Nuclear Program: Assessing Options and Risks" to staff members at Oak Ridge National Laboratory on November 15, 2007.

Assessing a range of options for constraining Iran's nuclear program, Bunn argues that insisting on zero centrifuges in Iran for the long term is very likely to lead to no agreement -- meaning either an unconstrained Iranian centrifuge program or military strikes, both of which pose high risks for U.S. and world security. Therefore, he argues, it is time to begin thinking seriously about what the least dangerous options involving some centrifuges in Iran might be, and explores the risks and advantages of an option involving 1-4 cascades with international ownership and a 24/7 international staff for all centrifuge activities.