The Day That Trump Failed to End Globalization

[English Translation]

Often, crises are moments of truth. Some leaders prove in these moments to be up to the stakes, others collapse. The forces behind decisions, interests and ideologies become clearer. President Tump's solemn address to the American nation on Wednesday evening on the coronavirus crisis deserves a special mention. On that day, Donald Trump was preparing to put an end to the world economy as we knew it.

This presidential address was not an impromptu statement. Read from a prompter from the Oval Office of the White House, in prime time, it left little room for improvisation. What did President Trump say? After announcing the suspension of all travel from Europe for the next 30 days, he added that "these prohibitions will not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo but various other things as we get approval. Anything coming from Europe to the United States is what we are discussing."

These statements caused stupor. It is inconceivable to stop all flows from Europe. Transatlantic trade is the world's leading trade route: USD 1300 billion worth of goods and services pass through it every year, twice as much as for Sino-American or Sino-European trade. All sectors of the economy are dependent, in one way or another, on this trade route.

The US economy would not withstand it any more than the European economy. What Trump proposed was not far from a self-imposed embargo on his own country, the kind of measures usually taken during a major conflict to strangle an enemy. The text of the speech sent by the White House a few minutes after contained these words. It was not a mistake.

Donald Trump was forced to back down. He tweeted in the evening that "trade will not be affected. The restriction stops people not goods." This was too late. The markets have collapsed, raising the spectre of a serious and lasting global economic crisis, intentionally fuelled on top of the public health one.

The fact that such a speech has been proposed and validated by the chain of command up to the President reveals reflexes that will no doubt be repeated when it comes to drawing the consequences of what we are going through.

First, the scapegoat rhetoric. After having minimized the epidemic, the Trump administration thought it needed a pretext to change its position without disavowing itself. In the pure populist tradition, the blame had to be put on someone else. It fall on Europe, as the alleged vector for importing this virus into the United States, which must now be stopped. It does not matter that the argument is false and that these measures have little effect (the United States has not issue mandatory confinement, the virus already circulates widely). For Donald Trump, from the beginning, the coronavirus crisis has been less a public health problem to be solved than a narrative battle to be won. This is true today, and will be true in the future.

Then, the retrenchment. The United States has been in a long phase of withdrawal from world affairs for years. This has been following a nationalistic and brutal stance since President Trump. International cooperation has little place in this context. It is hard to imagine the US administration, after blaming "a foreign virus", calling for coordination with these same foreigners to curb the spread of the virus and develop the necessary long-term responses. On the contrary: Die Welt tells us that President Trump tried to buy a German company that manufactures a possible vaccine in order to reserve it for the Americans. So much for joint international efforts.

Finally, this reveals the extent to which Donald Trump's anti-European obsession is gaining the upper hand. After calling Europe a "foe" and allowing the idea that the United States might leave NATO to float, the open trade war with China has left some European politicians hoping to have slipped through the cracks - so much so that the European Commission has started to consider a new trade agreement with the United States. This was a misperception. Donald Trump had warned that as soon as tensions on the Chinese front stabilised, Europe would be next on the list. It is no coincidence that he is now pointing to Europe as the culprit for the spread of the coronavirus.

Donald Trump's term of office may come to an end at the end of the year. But it may not. There will be profound lessons to be learned from the coronavirus crisis for the world economy. Recognizing that a some important elements will have to change, President Macron has called for "breakthrough decisions". If anyone wonder about what the Trump administration response might in the aftermath of the crises, this episode provided some insight. It is up to Europe to prepare for this, while hoping of finding back its allies as soon as possible.