An Extraordinary Week of the Arab Citizen Revolt

AMMAN -- In the past ten days I will have been in Beirut, Damascus, Doha, Qatar, and now Amman, Jordan, and in a few days I will be in Abu Dhabi then Dubai. This slightly more hectic than usual travel schedule provides useful opportunities to gauge popular and elite sentiments on the ground in various parts of the Arab world, during this historic moment of almost revolutionary change. This extraordinary week of major events in several Arab countries clarifies what was not clear when the first citizen revolt took place in Tunisia starting in December. The Arab countries can now be classified into three broad groups in terms of how they react to the demands of their citizens for serious reform or the removal of the leadership.

One group includes countries where strong protests will overthrow the leader and his ruling clique, as happened in Tunisia and Egypt and will happen soon in Yemen. A second group comprises a few countries whose leaders will fight back using all military means to crush the uprising against them, as has happened in Libya and Bahrain. The third group includes countries where protests and calls for radical reform will elicit the government’s willingness to discuss specific reforms and negotiate changes to be made, as is the case in Jordan, Oman and others to date. An emerging pattern indicates that the nature and character of the leader, and the degree of legitimacy he enjoys, are important factors in determining which of the three options a head of state chooses in responce to the demonstrations against his regime.

This week of momentous events has included: the constitutional referendum in Egypt; the international air strikes against the Libyan state armed forces; the escalating opposition that promises to remove Ali Abdullah Saleh from his position as president of Yemen; the first few demonstrations in several parts of Syria; the erratic forward movement of the national dialogue committee in Jordan; the reassertion of control by the Bahraini armed forces with the backing of Saudi Arabian and Emirati troops; growing demonstrations in Gaza calling on the two main Palestinian factions of Fateh and Hamas to unite; and, street demonstrations in Lebanon calling for a non-sectarian governance system.

The variety of responses by different Arab governments contrasts vividly with the congruence of grievances and demands across the entire Arab region. It is now clear that what we are witnessing is a pan-Arab citizen revolt that comprises a core set of demands related to several common issues: the rights of citizens, the limits and accountability of state power, and government decision-making mechanisms based on credible participation by citizens. The modern Arab world that was born around 1920 has now been profoundly challenged by its own citizens, who are fed up with living in systems that do not respect their rights or adequately provide for their basic needs in areas such as jobs, security, equal opportunity and simple human dignity.

The most intriguing thing that happened this week has been the apparent congruence between militarized American and European foreign policy and the majority sentiments among Arab public opinion – both of which wanted to come to the aid of the Libyans fighting for their freedom against the Muammar Gaddafi regime. Much controversy surrounds the Arab League’s decision to approve a no-flight zone imposed on Libya by foreign powers, and the subsequent air strikes against Libyan military assets and facilities. Yet I cannot shake the satisfaction of seeing Arab popular sentiment and Western foreign military policy coming together in the service of the shared goal of protecting Libyan civilians who have rebelled against the Gaddafi regime. This is almost as historic as the Arab revolt itself. We should monitor this matter carefully, to identify the consequences of Arab-American-European congruence after so many decades of tension and outright opposition between Arab and Western parties.

The few demonstrations in Syria that resulted in several deaths are also a potential milestone. Syria in the Levant is like Egypt for the whole Arab world -- a lynchpin country that influences events in many other lands around it. Should the demonstrations continue and spread in Syria and result in significant policy or personnel changes in Damascus, the impact on the region would be enormous. This would be especially felt in Lebanon and Palestine, along with Iran’s posture in and links with the Arab world.

The widespread extent and profound nature of the challenges to many Arab regimes by their own people represent nothing less than the first real process of national self-determination that the Arab world has ever experienced. This is a right that Arabs should have enjoyed when their states were created decades ago, but they were denied that right -- so now they have decided simply to seize it for themselves.v